FXUS64 KLIX 271321
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
721 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. ANOTHER VERY DRY
SOUNDING WITH A PW OF 0.30 INCHES. TWO VERY STEEP INVERSIONS
NOTED...ONE FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 625 FEET AND ANOTHER
FROM AROUND 2500 TO 5500 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL. LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE A VERY QUIET MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING TO COME INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES EAST. THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE MAIN STREAM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THROUGH
THE COUNTRY AT A GOOD CLIP AS A CUT OFF LOW REPLACES THE WEAK LOW
ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA
(RESEMBLING CONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION). BUT INSTEAD OF STAYING
OVER THE DEEP SW...THE PAC RIDGE MOVES IN FORCING THE UPPER LOW
EASTWARD. THE FIRST WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATE
WITH THE FIRST PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MON. THE FRONT SHOULD
WEAKEN AND SLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH DUE TO WINDS BECOMING MORE
UNIFORM WITH HEIGHT AND PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY. BUT ENOUGH COLD DRY
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF AREA TO CAUSE STRONG BAROCLINICITY
PROVIDING THE MECHANISM NECESSARY FOR A STRONG SFC LOW TO FORM
TUE. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE OLD STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED AND STRENGHTEN
WITH TIME AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER LENDING SUPPORT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PHASES WITH AN EVEN STRONGER LARGER UPPER TROUGH...THE
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO OCCLUDE BECOMING A PROBLEM
FROM THE EAST COAST BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS IT PULLS
OUT...CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH BY THU
AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PROVIDES A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING SOME FAIRLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH AS WELL.

TS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE FRONT MON AND MON NIGHT. SOME TS
NEAR THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TUE
INTO WED. BUT THE OVERWHELMING MOJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A COLD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THE SAME PERIOD.
THIS OFCOURSE ALL DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.
STRONGEST WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE GULF WATERS.

AVIATION...
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO STEADILY INCREASE IN 
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CAVOK NEXT 24-30 HOURS 
AT ALL TERMINALS. 24/RR

MARINE...
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-MORNING AS 
AIR COLUMN WARMS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. RELATIVELY LOW WINDS 
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING WITH 
ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS 
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG TUESDAY AND MAY BECOME ENHANCED FURTHER IF LOW 
PRESSURE INDICATED IN MODELS DEVELOP IN THE WEST GULF DURING THE MID 
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  37  66  48  70 /   0   0  10  20 
BTR  40  66  50  72 /   0   0  10  20 
MSY  44  67  53  71 /   0   0  10  20 
GPT  37  66  50  71 /   0   0  10  20 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$