FXUS64 KLZK 080533
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1133 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT TO IFR/LIFR IN MOST AREAS...AND
WILL REMAIN LOW ON TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...AND THIS WILL CREATE MVFR VISIBILITIES. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING...AND CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BECOME WINDY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO
18 TO 24 KNOTS. (46)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009/
UPDATE...
BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE NRN
COUNTIES...AS A RESULT REMOVED MENTION OF WINTRY MIX IN THIS SAME
REGION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER NOW...THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS FROM THE SOUTH
AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN. INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
MENTIONED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FA...WITH
STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
THICKNESSES TONIGHT INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN LIQUID
FORM...WITH SLIGHT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. ADDED PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS ALL COUNTIES...AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY.
RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY...UNTIL THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. IF LINGERING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH COOLER
AIR...THE NORTHWEST COULD SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WEDS...AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH A STRONG JET AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BY WEDS...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO 20S.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED TERM WHILE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A LOT
OF DIFFICULTY LOCKING IN ON A SOLUTION AND THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BEEN AT ODDS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS
TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS ECMWF RUN...FOR NOW.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL SET UP A
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT
A LOT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT A BIT OF OVERRUNNING MAY DEVELOP
ON MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FROM TIME TO TIME TO SUPPORT A MIXED BAG
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...
MAINLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS A BIT ON MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL. MY CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL RUNS IS NOT VERY HIGH AT
THIS TIME...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE THE
MAIN CULPRIT...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION LIKELY. THIS COULD
CHANGE A BIT IF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE HAPPENS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AT THE RIGHT TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 38 46 37 43 / 80 80 50 10
CAMDEN AR 45 55 44 49 / 90 80 50 10
HARRISON AR 35 44 30 34 / 70 70 50 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 42 50 40 44 / 70 80 50 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 43 51 39 47 / 80 80 50 10
MONTICELLO AR 44 57 44 49 / 90 100 60 10
MOUNT IDA AR 41 50 37 42 / 70 70 40 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 37 43 33 37 / 70 70 50 10
NEWPORT AR 40 48 38 43 / 80 90 60 10
PINE BLUFF AR 44 53 42 48 / 90 90 50 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 40 47 35 40 / 70 70 50 10
SEARCY AR 40 49 38 45 / 80 90 50 10
STUTTGART AR 44 52 40 47 / 80 90 50 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...60
