FXUS62 KCAE 262033
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
333 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST 
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE 
SUNDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL MONDAY THROUGH 
TUESDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SIT OVER WI TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. 

RIVER FLOODING REMAINS A PROMINENT ISSUE. RIVER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING...ESPECIALLY WITH FLOOD GATES BEING
OPENED AT AREA RESERVOIRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST/GREAT LAKE REGION OPENS UP AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY
FORECAST WITH PH20 REMAINING LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE BRINGING SHORT WAVES TO THE EAST.
NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. 
GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT FAST...SO FORECAST BASED ON ECMWF.
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THE REDEVELOPS OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY...AND MOVES ON UP
THE COAST SATURDAY. WENT WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIP SINCE MODELS
SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND WET BULB TEMPS
ARE ABOVE FREEZING OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND
REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WITH WINDS OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG OVERNIGHT.
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...MP