FXUS64 KTSA 071135
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR AND MVFR CONDTIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY
THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE
BY MID AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TO GO ALONG WITH
THE CLOUDS RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S BY THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY WITH THE RETURN OF SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BUT MAY
RECOVER TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE RAIN
INCREASES. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL HOWEVER SO WILL KEEP SOME
MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY QUICKLY LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT LIFTS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
CAN HANG AROUND FOR THE COLD AIR TO ARRIVE TUESDAY EVENING...A
VERY BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL
OCCUR IN OUR AREA HOWEVER.
THE MAIN STORY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES. SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL NOT BE OF MUCH HELP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE
FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IS FOR ENOUGH WARM AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS A COLD RAIN. WILL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY
FOR NOW AND KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID.
A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AND THEN FAVORED THE COLDER ECMWF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 40 33 44 22 / 0 50 70 30
FSM 48 38 47 28 / 0 80 70 20
MLC 45 36 46 25 / 0 60 50 10
BVO 37 30 42 20 / 0 50 70 30
FYV 45 34 49 25 / 0 70 80 30
BYV 43 33 46 25 / 0 70 90 30
MKO 44 35 46 24 / 0 60 60 20
MIO 39 33 45 22 / 0 50 80 40
F10 42 34 46 23 / 0 50 60 20
HHW 50 41 48 29 / 10 70 50 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...17
