FXUS66 KSGX 082126
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
126 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF 
FROST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND MILD THURSDAY WITH A 
CHANCE OF MORE RAIN DEVELOPING AND LINGERING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. DRY AND TURNING WARMER NEXT WEEK UNDER BUILDING HIGH 
PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO... 
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

KNKX RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.

THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY MOST AREAS...BUT A FEW SPOTS 
IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE STILL GUSTING TO NEAR 35 MPH AROUND NOON. A 
MOIST LAYER TO 6K FT AND INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ISLANDS HAS 
SUPPORTED A BROKEN STRATO CU LAYER WITH BASES NEAR 5K FT THROUGH THE 
DAY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. FARTHER NORTH...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. 

MODELS INDICATE HIGH RH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY 
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS STILL POSSIBLE. IN 
ADDITION...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN AS WELL. SO NOT 
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A 
FROST ADVISORY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT 
WIDESPREAD TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE INLAND 
EMPIRE...ORANGE COUNTY... AND THE LOWER DESERTS. A BIT WARMER 
TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS REBOUND UNDER FAIR SKIES.

THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SYSTEM OUT OVER THE PACIFIC W OF 
130W WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT CA ON THU. THICKENING CLOUDS 
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME WARMER STRATIFORM RAIN DURING THE DAY OR BY 
EVENING. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT HAS 
A DRAW ON MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH SO IT SHOULD HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE 
FOR SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO ACCUMULATE...BUT BASED ON 
CURRENT MODEL DATA...NO STRONG DYNAMICS OR COLD AIR FOR HEAVY 
RAINFALL.

MOIST WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND... 
AND THE MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE STATE BY 
SUN. THIS ONE IS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH...SO WE MAY NOT 
SEE ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM IT EITHER...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE 
SUN WOULD BE WET.

THE MOIST ZONAL PATTERN OFF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS REPLACED BY 
RIDGING OVER THE EPAC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ENSURE DRY 
WEATHER AND WARMING THEN. 

&&

.AVIATION...
082100Z...SCT STRATUS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FT MSL WILL REMAIN OVER 
AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES 
SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED...EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE 
MOUNTAINS WHERE PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. 

ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA FL200 AND 
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.  

&&

.MARINE...
082100Z...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE 
THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE WEST LONG PERIOD SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
IN WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES UP TO AROUND 10 FT. THE LARGE SURF IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SWELL WILL BE UP TO AROUND 
5 TO 6 FEET IN THE INNER WATER TO 7 TO 9 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS 
DURING THAT PERIOD. 

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SEE LAXCFWSGX.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...SS