FXUS64 KOHX 010250
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
850 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.UPDATE...
WILL LOWER TEMPS CONSIDERABLY (ALREADY 28 AT LUG)...GO FOR CLEAR
SKIES...AND PATCHY FOG...PROBABLY NEAR WATER MOSTLY.
&&

17/MAG

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...

CLEARING BEGINNING TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA AND EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. AFTER SOME EVENING CLOUDS THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INTO TUESDAY EVE.
MAV TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD THROUGH TUE NGT.

THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE WED SYSTEM...ESPLY
WITH THE NAM AS A MUCH FURTHER WEST OUTLIER WITH THE SFC LOW
TRACK. LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTERING...AND
CONSIDERING THE GFS' RESEMBLANCE TO THE ECMWF...WE ARE REASONABLY
CONFIDENT THE SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE MORE OF A MIDDLE TN TRACK THAN
ONE CLOSER TO MEMPHIS. OF COURSE THE EVENTUAL LOW TRACK AND
STRENGTH WILL HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON OUR ENTIRE FORECAST.
NONETHELESS WE ANTICIPATE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN ALL FORECAST
ELEMENTS OVER THE AREA ON WED MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST.

OUR GRIDS FEATURE HIGH POPS BEGINNING LATE TUE NIGHT AND TAPERING
OFF WED NIGHT. BASED ON OUR TRACK FAVORING THE GFS WILL CONTINUE
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE NORTH WED NIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ACCUMS WITH WARM GROUND AND SHORT DURATION. CAA CONTINUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED BLO -10C BY FRIDAY. OUR
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WERE CUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

NEW EURO AND GFS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SYSTEM SHEARING THROUGH
EASTERN TN ON FRI NIGHT PRODUCING A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW FOR OUR
PLATEAU COUNTIES. WITHOUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IT'S TOO EARLY TO
BITE...BUT LOW POPS WERE INTRODUCED AS EVEN WITHOUT LARGER SCALE
FORCING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06