FXUS63 KPAH 271718
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1115 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE DISCUSSION
SECTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND A
GRADUAL RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL...THEN BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE LIGHT PRECIP
SPREADING ACROSS THE QUAD STATE SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. GFS IS FASTEST OF THE
THREE...WITH PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z. NAM AND ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE SLOWER...LINGERING SOME PRECIP INTO MONDAY MORNING. WENT
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS WEST TO LOW CHANCE POPS EAST SUNDAY...THEN
LIKELY WEST TO CATEGORICAL EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. SHRUNK POPS MONDAY
MORNING TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND
REMOVED POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS...MAV AND MET ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...AND STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE HIGHS...BUT LEANED
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET LOWS. FOR EXTENDED TEMPS...WENT
CLOSE TO LATEST MEX TEMPS...WHICH ONLY REQUIRED SOME MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE TAFS BOIL DOWN TO A WIND FORECAST...AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN SOUTH OF THE AREA HAS ALLOWED SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WEST OR
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL IN THE FAR EAST. THE WINDS WILL BACK
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT. NO FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10KTS WILL PICK UP SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RST
AVIATION...DRS
