FXUS61 KBTV 142002
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...BUT BE SHORT LIVED. A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST AND BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BLUSTERY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1108 AM EST MONDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS TO
REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...AS WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MIXING TO BREAK UP THIS CLOUD COVER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN
IN WINDSOR COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE. ALSO...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AS FEEL THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 AM EST MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST...AND WILL SPREAD THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORTHERN MTNS OF VT MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW. A DEEPENING BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW...WILL HELP TO PUMP SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VT...TOMORROW...THUS THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN SE VT AND ALSO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AS MOISTURE IS FAIRLY
SHALLOW...AND NOT PRESENT IN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
BUT...LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW BANDING AS SHARP COLD
AIR ADVECTION FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING
WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT DROPPING ABOUT
20 DEGREES FROM EARLIER HIGHS. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE LAKES...AND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WE WILL BE IN A BIT OF A SQUEEZE
PLAY BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD BLUSTERY NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE BLUSTERY WINDS...HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 8-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SO IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL A LOT LIKE WINTER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EST MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS
FCST WITH REGARDS TO DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WL FEATURE DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN CANADA/NE CONUS
WITH MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS AND PRECIP EXPECTED. GIVEN...POSITION
OF CLOSED 7H/5H SYSTEM...FEEL BEST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/DYNAMICS
WL INITIALLY BE ACRS NORTHERN MAINE INTO EASTERN CANADIAN
MARITMES. EVENTUALLY BY NEXT WEEKEND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RETRO-
GRADE BACK WEST AND MAY IMPACT OUR CWA WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...WE WL BE WATCHING EMBEDDED VORTS ROUNDING MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO OUR CWA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE FLW WL PREVAIL THURS THRU FRIDAY...BUT
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...THEREFORE MAYBE A FEW MTN
FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...IF AT ALL.
BIG STORY WL BE THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPS ON BRISK NW WINDS FOR
THURS INTO THE WEEKEND. NAM 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A HIGH AROUND 5F FOR SLK AND
L10S FOR BTV ON THURS. WL TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT 2 TO 4
DEGREES BLW MOS NUMBERS. OTHERWISE...IF SKIES CLR AND WINDS BCM
LIGHT...SEVERAL LOCATIONS (SLK/NEK) COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS BTWN
-10 AND -20F. HOWEVER...FEEL WINDS/LOW CLOUDS WL KEEP LOWS BTWN -5
AND -10F AT SLK/MTN LOCATIONS FOR THURS AND FRI NITES. HIGH TEMPS
WL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE 20S BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SHORT TERM AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE CIGS/VIS
AND ASSOCIATED PTYPE THRU 18Z TUES. CRNT SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH CIGS RANGING FROM
OVC025 AT MPV TO OVC040 AT KMSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF WINDOW OF
DECREASE MOISTURE BTWN 18Z-22Z TODAY ACRS OUR TAF SITES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SCT-BKN DECK BTWN 050-080KFT.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS/MOISTURE WL QUICKLY INCREASE AFT 00Z
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SN/RA POSSIBLE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW BEST
UVVS BTWN 03Z-09Z ACRS OUR TAF SITES...BUT MOISTURE IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION IS LIMITED AND QUICKLY DECREASES AFT
08Z...SUPPORTING MORE OF A -DZ OR FZDZ PTYPE. FEEL SFC TEMPS ABOVE
0C AT BTV/PBG/RUT/MSS WL KEEP THREAT LIMITED FOR FROZEN
PRECIP...BUT COULD BE A PROBLEM AT MPV/SLK. VIS WL DECREASE BTWN
2-4SM TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP AND BR...WITH CIGS
DROPPING BLW 010KFT. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS
ACRS OUR TAF SITES ON TUES...WITH CIGS BTWN 005 AND 012KFT AND
SOME REDUCTION IN VIS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG HRS.
OUTLOOK...18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SFC COLD FRNT WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND POTENTIAL -SW WL OCCUR
BTWN 18Z-22Z TUES...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MTN -SW AND OCCASIONAL MVFR (SLK/MPV) WEDS THRU
FRI.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...AMF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
