FXUS64 KLZK 261727 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1125 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH/MID CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH. MORE CLOUDS WILL ROTATE INTO THE
STATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY FROM A STORM SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CEILINGS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE COULD DROP TO 4000 TO
6000 FEET. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 18 TO 22 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT
4 TO 8 KNOTS...AND WEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. (46)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE TEMP FORECAST IN SHORT
TERM...THEN PRECIP CHANCES WITH TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.
LARGE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER IA...WHILE THE UPPER
LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN IL. PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS REMAINED UP OVER
AR...AND WINDS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST HAVE STAYED UP OVERNIGHT
AND HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. SNOW ON GROUND WILL AFFECT
TEMPS OVER NW AR NEXT FEW DAYS. WIND SPEEDS ARE 10 TO 20 MPH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS...WHILE BELOW 10 MPH OVER THE
SOUTH. STILL SEEING STRATA CU FIELD WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE
LOW...AND SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH NORTHERN AR TODAY. REST
OF AR WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS MOST OF AR...WHILE POSSIBLE PARTLY SUNNY
OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS WITH SOME STRATUS CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY. MAV TEMPS STILL RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
TOO WARM...AND WILL USE OBSERVED AND TRENDS. OVERALL SURFACE HIGH
DOMINATED OVER THE AREA...WHILE SUNDAY SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH NOT TO AFFECT AR. ALSO AN ADDITIONAL
SURGE OF COOLER AIR DOES FILTER THROUGH AR LATE SUNDAY TO
MONDAY...KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...BUT ONLY MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS
OVER NORTH TO NORTHEAST AR. CHANCE OF FLURRIES VERY LOW AND HAVE
LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME. LATER TUESDAY TO THE OVERNIGHT...THE NEXT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE...AND PROGRESSES EAST. FORECAST
TRENDS AT THIS TIME GOOD WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING P0P FROM WEST
TO EAST. TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN ON TYPE OF PRECIP. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER MAINLY
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE
ROCKIES. PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING THE SECOND TROUGH THROUGH
THURSDAY AND YET ANOTHER ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL SYSTEMS THROUGH ARKANSAS DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST
CONSISTENCY WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY TO
LIKELY. RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE COMES ACROSS AND AFFECTS MAINLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ADDING
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 39 25 39 23 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 50 29 48 26 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 34 21 35 19 / 10 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 44 27 46 24 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 43 27 46 24 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 50 29 48 27 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 43 26 46 23 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 34 22 35 20 / 10 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 40 26 41 24 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 47 28 47 26 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 39 25 42 22 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 41 27 43 24 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 45 28 46 26 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
