FXUS63 KBIS 282152
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
352 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

CURRENTLY...SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS IN MY  
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
THAT IS TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE GIVEN 
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES IN MY WEST...WHICH WILL SPREAD 
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGING 
BUILDS IN THE AREA AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST CONUS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT 
TERM...SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST. MAJOR 
CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO 
ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 

ONCE THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXITS THE REGION 
TONIGHT...HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE AND STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL 
BE THE DOMINATE FEATURES FOR NEARLY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR AND COOL. HOWEVER...THE GFS PLACES A  
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING DUE TO A WEAK 
SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER THE LAKE WINNEPEG AREA. THE LOW LOOKS LIKE 
IT WILL HAVE VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THEREFORE MAY NOT 
HAVE THE FORCING NECESSARY TO PROMOTE PRECIP...SO WILL LEAVE OUT 
MENTION OF POPS UNLESS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LATER MODEL RUNS. 

THE NEXT FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STATE OVERNIGHT 
MONDAY/TUESDAY. NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND BRING FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY 
TUESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING FOLLOWING BEHIND. ECMWF IS A BIT 
QUICKER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...BUT EITHER SOLUTION KEEPS 
MOST OF THE STATE DRY UNTIL THE LOW MOVES MORE NORTHEAST AND 
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO ENTER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST 
IF NOT ALL PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS 
APPEAR TO BE RATHER LOW. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM IN FURTHER 
MODEL RUNS AS TIGHT GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN SOME 
GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED SNOWFALL. 

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. MUCH MORE SEASONABLE 
TEMPS SHOULD THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. 

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL 
WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  

ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE WILL BE SCATTERED 
WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS LOW. 

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MT AND WY. MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN ND 
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
HOWEVER...ANOTHER BATCH OF MVFR CIGS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN THEN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND 
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA/BPN
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...NH