FXUS63 KDMX 270515 AAB
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1115 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE QUIET ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA AS LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY AROUND SUNSET
AND A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO TURN TO WEST THEN SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
PASSES...REMAINING LIGHT DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. NORMALLY THIS
WOULD BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER LARGE AREAS OF
CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL COMPLICATE MIN TEMP
FORECAST A BIT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR AREA AS IT APPEARS THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES WILL
ENSUE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE THICKER CIRRUS MOVES IN...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS OR SO HAVE BEEN LOWER THAN
EXPECTED DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER...WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FACTORS LIKELY LEADING TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA BY A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET. THEREAFTER THE
TEMPERATURE WILL FALL MUCH MORE SLOWLY AS THE CIRRUS MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UPPER
RIDGING PASSES OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ON BOTH DAYS AS THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS INTO IOWA AS SOUTH
WINDS PERSIST. WILL SEE SFC FRONT PUSH ACRS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BUT STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION AS LIFT IS DIFFUSE AND MOISTURE REMAINS SPARSE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CANADIAN AIR
FILTERS INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE SYSTEM. SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING
SLIDES THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH BRIEF WARM UP BUT BOTH GFS AND EURO
ARE INDICATING A LARGE TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BY MID
TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DOESNT APPEAR MUCH PCPN WILL OCCUR WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM KEEPS MOST MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON BY DAY 7
AS THICKNESSES CRASH.
&&
.AVIATION...
27/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. MINIMAL CHANCE
FOR SOME FOG LATE FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER BETTER CHANCE LOOKS BEYOND
TAF PERIOD AND IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE ISSUANCE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON
