FXUS64 KLZK 301658
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1058 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS...AND A NELY SFC FLOW OF <7 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL SITES.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
AVIATION...
REMAINING MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SERN AR SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF
AR...WITH SOME LINGERING CS INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN 1/2.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CDFNT MOVED OUT OF THE FA ARND MIDNIGHT. STILL SOME LINGERING RAIN
NOTED OVR SERN AR ATTM. RADAR TRENDS INDC THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WL
BE OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z...BUT STILL MAY LEAVE SMALL POPS IN FOR A
FEW HRS THIS MRNG. NWLY WINDS WL CONT TO USHER COLDER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH CLOUDS DCRSG AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE REGION TNGT AND KEEP DRY CONDS IN
PLACE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUE. THE HIGH CENTER WL SLIDE E OF THE
AREA LATE TUE. MEANWHILE...AN UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVR THE GULF OF CA
WL BEGIN WORKING EWD ACRS NRN MX AND ONTO TX TUE NGT AND WED.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WL RETURN NWD INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW.
INCRSG WAA PATTERN WL CAUSE RAIN CHCS TO INCRS FM THE S ACRS AR
GOING INTO WED.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE
EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THE UPR LOW WED AND WED NGT. GENERAL
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT IS TO CONT USING A BLEND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...TAKING THE UPR SYS ACRS CNTRL OR SRN AR LATE WED AND WED
NGT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WL BE SHIFTING E
OF AR EARLY WED NGT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE STORM SYS.
OPTED TO MENTION A BRIEF MIXTURE OF RN/SN OVR PARTS OF NRN AR WED
EVENING BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF. WL CONT TO EMPHASIZE THERE WL BE
NO ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW ON
THU.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
COLD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN RMNS PROGGED TO CONT THRU THE PD. OPTED
TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF DURG THIS TIMEFRAME. WL
SEE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPR TROF/
SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE FA. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS TEMPS THRU THE
PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 51 33 56 39 / 0 0 0 30
CAMDEN AR 56 35 55 42 / 10 0 10 70
HARRISON AR 49 32 56 38 / 0 0 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 53 33 54 43 / 0 0 10 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 53 33 55 42 / 0 0 10 60
MONTICELLO AR 54 35 55 42 / 10 0 10 70
MOUNT IDA AR 54 31 54 42 / 0 0 10 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 32 56 38 / 0 0 0 20
NEWPORT AR 50 33 56 41 / 0 0 0 40
PINE BLUFF AR 52 35 55 40 / 10 0 10 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 54 32 55 38 / 0 0 10 50
SEARCY AR 51 32 54 40 / 0 0 10 50
STUTTGART AR 52 34 55 42 / 10 0 10 60
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...99
