FXUS64 KLCH 021822
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1222 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION... MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA WITH
WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER AFFECTING AREAS AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN AIRPORTS...BUT PREVAILING BKN TO OVC SKY COVER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS GENERAL 2K TO 3K FEET.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
&&
SHAMBURGER
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLASSIC UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER INLAND AREAS HAS RESULTED IN FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVING ALREADY BEEN MET OR EXCEEDED IN MANY AREAS.
THUS DESPITE THE CAA IN PROGRESS HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL ADJUST POPS TO SHOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF I-10 TODAY. MADE SEVERAL OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS AS WELL.
SHAMBURGER
MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
BUOY 42035 RECENTLY GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SCA.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
SYNOPSIS...THE SURFACE LOW/SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
EARLIER TONIGHT HAS MOVED QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
DECREASING CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW OVER THE AREA TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY. SKIES WILL SHOW DECREASING CLOUDINESS MAINLY AT MID
AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATTENDANT UPPER TROF
SWINGS THROUGH.
SHORT TERM...KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY THANKS
TO COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER EVIDENCED
BY NEAR SATURATION AT H925 ON THE NAM.
LONG TERM...INTERESTING SET UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN AIR
INFILTRATES TODAY AND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS OFF SOUTH TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS TIME THE SURFACE LOW TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK ACROSS THE MID GULF ALLOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS IN
PLACE OUT OF CANADA. GFS 1000-500 THICKNESS VALUES FROM 5360M
AROUND JASPER AND LEESVILLE TO 5400M AROUND BEAUMONT AND LAKE
CHARLES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR
LOWER SE TX AND SW LA...AND ALL SNOW FOR THE LAKES AREA OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DUE TO UNFROZEN GROUND...ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT INTERESTING NONE THE LESS.
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DROPS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF INTO WEST
TEXAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS ADDITIONAL COASTAL LOW FORMATION.
MARINE...THE GALE WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLIER TNITE AS
THE LOW HEADS OUT OF THE AREA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARM 63 DEGREE WATERS. WILL LIKELY NEED A
NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THANKS
TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FROM THE NEW COASTAL LOW. THERE WILL NOT
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF EASY CONDITIONS OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IN THIS STORMY PATTERN FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
SWEENEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 38 57 42 46 34 / 10 10 10 40 40
KBPT 39 57 44 46 33 / 10 10 10 40 40
KAEX 39 54 35 45 32 / 10 10 10 30 40
KLFT 39 57 42 47 33 / 10 0 10 30 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
