FXUS64 KMOB 050600
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THUS FAR THIS EVENING.
EARLIER IN THE EVENING WE HAD BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF RAIN MIXED
WITH SLEET...BUT DURING THE PAST HOUR REPORTS OF RAIN MIXED WITH
SNOW...AND CHANGING TO PURE SNOW...HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AS WELL AS PARTS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. REPORTS FROM MOST LOCATIONS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR...BUT VARIOUS REPORTS FROM PERRY COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI INDICATE ANYWHERE FROM ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW
CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND (MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS). APPEARS THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM PERRY COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS PARTS OF GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF
MISSISSIPPI AND INTO WASHINGTON...CHOCTAW AND CLARKE COUNTIES OF
ALABAMA. UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12/DS
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE DAY TO INCLUDE ESCAMBIA...CONECUH AND BUTLER
COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. PRETTY MUCH INCLUDED THE I-65 CORRIDOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES. MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S...HAS ALREADY ENTERED INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THESE AIRMASS
WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST. DEEP MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY...AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BEING DETECTED BY REGIONAL
RADARS. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST AND ENTER INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASING
IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLDER AIRMASS FILTERS IN...THE RAIN
WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...MAINLY OVER GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. RAIN... POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SNOW...COULD OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
ADVISORY AREA...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SKIES
EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY PERIOD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW IN THE LOWER/MID 20S INLAND AREAS AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST
SECTIONS. /22
.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
EXTENDED GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /22
&&
.MARINE...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING
WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIMING TO MATCH WINDS INCREASING FIRST OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING...THEN AS WINDS SUBSIDE THE ADVISORY
ENDS FIRST OVER MOBILE BAY FOLLOWED BY THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS
ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST AND DECREASING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW/WAVE
DEVELOPS OVER COASTAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA INCREASES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND VEERS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY ATTAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE LOW WEAKENS AND EXITS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WITH A
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN A STRONG SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO 20/20-25
KNOTS THEN DECREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /29
&&
.AVIATION...SWATH OF STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS HAS BROKEN UP OVER MOB
AND BFM BUT REMAINS OVER PNS. HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING VFR AT MOB
AND BFM WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT PNS...BUT THEN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE BY 22Z. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT MOB
AND BFM FOR OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR PNS FOR LIKEWISE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
PNS UNTIL 22Z. MVFR CEILINGS SET IN ACROSS THE AREA BY 1Z WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH 5Z AS OVERRUNNING INTENSIFIES AND SUBCLOUD
AIR MOISTENS. HAVE STARTED WITH PREVAILING VERY LIGHT RAIN AT 1Z
WITH A TEMPO GROUP FROM 1 TO 5Z THEN PROB30 FROM 5Z TO 11Z FOR
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT SOME
SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT MOB AND BFM PROBABLY BETWEEN 8-11Z
BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL REASSESS AT
00Z TAF CYCLE. CEILINGS LIFT BY 13Z WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATER IN
THE DAY. /29
&&
.FIRE...RAINS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE GULF BY THIS EVENING.
COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD AND WILL ALLOW THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES. A DRY PERIOD WILL RESUME OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RAIN RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWEST DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS MOSTLY FAIR TO AVERAGE. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 32 50 27 56 / 90 05 00 10
PENSACOLA 37 53 31 55 / 90 05 00 10
DESTIN 40 53 36 53 / 90 05 00 10
EVERGREEN 35 48 23 54 / 90 05 00 10
WAYNESBORO 30 48 23 55 / 90 05 00 10
CAMDEN 33 47 22 54 / 90 05 00 10
CRESTVIEW 37 52 25 55 / 90 05 00 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.
FL...NONE.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND
WAYNE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
