FXUS63 KICT 221702
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
.UPDATE...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...WITH LOTS OF SHORT TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW WARM THE
LAYER JUST OFF THE SFC WILL GET AND POSSIBLY STAY JUST BELOW
FREEZING AND OF COURSE IMPACTS ON PRECIP TYPE AS THIS SHALLOW COLD
AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST 12Z/NAM/WRF IS DOING A DECENT
JOB WITH CURRENT SFC TEMPS...WITH TEMPS IN CENTRAL KS JUST BELOW
FREEZING AS COLDER AIR AND STRATUS/FREEZING FOG OOZES INTO THIS
AREA. INITIAL EDGE OF THIS STRATUS HAS LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY FROM HUT TO JUST SOUTH OF SLN. EXPECT THIS OOZE
OF COLDER AIR TO COME TO A HALT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HUT AND ICT AS THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES AND WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDER WAY JUST OFF THE
SFC.
WITH THIS COLD AIR IN PLACE AND WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THE CONCERN TURNS TO PRECIP TYPE AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURATES THE LAYER ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE AND RAIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THIS SHALLOW SUB FREEZING AIR. EXPECT THIS DRIZZLE TO
DEVELOP WITH THIS COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DEEPER SATURATION WILL LEAD TO
THIS DRIZZLE CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS THE OVERNIGHT
PROGRESSES INTO WED MORNING. SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN CENTRAL KS...SO ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL
CERTAINLY BEGIN TO CAUSE ICING CONCERNS ON ELEVATED SURFACES. NOT AS
CONCERNED ABOUT TREATED ROADS AS MUCH...BUT CERTAINLY CONCERNED
ABOUT TREES AND POWER LINES IN CENTRAL KS EARLY ON WED WITH A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
WARM AIR OVER THE TOP OF THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR...MIGHT ACTUALLY
CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN OVER TO A STEADY SLEET SHOWER ALONG
INTERSTATE 70...AS DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO DEVELOP....THEN THAW IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER...THEN
RE-FREEZE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. SO WILL ADD THIS MENTION AS
WELL TO THE ADVISORY. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...CERTAINLY THINK THAT
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FOR CENTRAL KS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WED.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/
UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED FOG MENTION FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
FOR THIS MORNING.
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WEATHER CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A WINTER STORM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CEILINGS IN CENTRAL KANSAS ARE GOING TO REMAIN IN LIFR
CATEGORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...BUT THIS STRATUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE KHUT/KICT/KCNU TAF SITES UNTIL
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT...AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
DRIZZLE/RAIN IS LIKELY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER. WEATHER CONDITIONS AT
THESE TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SCHRECK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE SNOW AND WIND POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
TODAY-WEDNESDAY:
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SHALLOW COLDER AIR WAS
BEGINNING TO OOZE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE LOW STRATUS WAS
FORMING ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING FOG. THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THIS SHALLOW AIR MASS. THE NAM PROJECTS THIS COOLER
AIR TO CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AT
THIS POINT...I WOULD EXPECT THIS AIR MASS TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE DEVELOPING SURFACE TROF WHICH APPEARS TO BE FORMING
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PRATT...RENO AND MARION COUNTIES. THE MODELS DO
SHOW SOME GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE 285-290K LAYER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE COLUMN
CONTINUING TO SATURATE UP AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH
OF THE SURFACE TROF AXIS. AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION STARTING AROUND 00Z AND
CONTINUE IT UNTIL 15Z. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT...DUE TO LATENT HEAT EFFECTS FROM
FREEZING. AFTER 15Z...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS THE
SURFACE TROF PUSHES WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER TROF.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE WIND AND SNOW WHICH WILL HAMPER THE VISIBILITY. THE
00Z GFS/00Z UKMET ARE STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO
THE 00Z ECMWF/GEFS/SREF ON THE LATEST TRACK WITH THIS STORM. THE 00Z
ECMWF/GEFS/SREF ARE TAKING THIS STORM A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH WOULD REALLY CUT DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
POSSIBLE SECONDARY CONVEYOR BELT DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WHICH COULD CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO OCCLUDE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY. AS IT STANDS IT STILL APPEARS LIKE CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SEE
THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM WITH THE BLIZZARD WATCH STILL ON TRACK. SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. WE DID NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT WATCH CONFIGURATION
IN SOUTHERN KANSAS. EVEN IF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DOES SEE LESSER
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...THE WIND WILL BE VERY BRUTAL
WITH SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. THE
CHANGEOVER TIMES STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
COX
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
IFR/LIFR CIGS ~500FT SPREADING SE FROM NEBRASKA SHOULD REACH KRSL
~22/09Z & KSLN 22/12Z-22/13Z AS POST COLD-FRONTAL 925MB WRAP
AROUND ARRIVES. WITH COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT
IN 1,500-3,000FT LAYER EXPECT MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT OVER KRSL & KSLN
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUE. AS SUCH AM KEEPING BOTH TERMINALS
IN IFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE 22/06Z TAF CYCLE. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO
OVERSPREAD SC & SE KS AROUND MIDDAY TUE AS COLD FRONT ARRIVES. TIL
THEN STILL ANTICIPATE AREAS OF LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
WARM/MOIST LWR-DECK ADVECTION FROM OK. STILL APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE MVFR ~4SM BR PRIOR TO COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL.
LIKE KRSL & KSLN...EXPECT MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT FOR KHUT & KICT AS
STRONG INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THESE AREAS IFR STRATIFIED FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 40 36 50 32 / 20 100 90 70
HUTCHINSON 34 31 44 30 / 20 100 100 80
NEWTON 34 34 48 32 / 20 100 100 70
ELDORADO 43 41 51 34 / 30 100 90 70
WINFIELD-KWLD 53 46 53 35 / 30 100 90 70
RUSSELL 32 28 34 25 / 20 100 100 90
GREAT BEND 33 29 36 26 / 20 100 100 90
SALINA 32 30 37 29 / 20 100 100 90
MCPHERSON 33 31 42 30 / 10 100 100 80
COFFEYVILLE 53 49 57 43 / 30 100 80 90
CHANUTE 52 46 54 42 / 30 100 90 80
IOLA 52 45 53 42 / 30 100 90 80
PARSONS-KPPF 53 47 56 42 / 30 100 80 90
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ052-053-068-069-082-083-091>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067.
&&
$$
