FXUS64 KCRP 070133
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
733 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DENSE FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWFA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HWR...THE
NAM/GFS PROG A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTH WIND/ADVECTION OF LOWER
THETA-E VALUES OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURGE OF HIGHER SFC
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NERN
CWFA...YET UNSURE WHETHER THESE CONDITIONS WL PERSIST BEYOND 06Z
MON. THUS...WL MONITOR. OTHERWISE...GFS/NAM PROG ISENTROPIC
LIFT/CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST LIGHT
RAIN DRG THE 06-12Z MONDAY PERIOD OVER THE SERN CWFA. UPDATED POPS
TO INCLUDE SUCH. SEA HEIGHTS AT 42020 NEAR 6FT YET CONDITIONS
BELOW SCEC APPEAR CHARACTERISTIC OF CONDITIONS IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...A MOIST AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER KVCT THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO VLIFR LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO FURTHER
STABILIZATION. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAINS TERMINAL AERODROMES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LATER ONSET (13Z) OF IFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR KLRD DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBYS SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE MONDAY AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INCREASES. THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL GENERATE -DZ OVER
ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS MAINTAINING THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN OUT
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS LEAD TO DECENT WARMING.
ON THE OTHER HAND...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY EAST OF HIGHWAY
281 AND CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE DEVELOPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT OF SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HAVE GONE WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR GUIDANCE. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL START
THE PERIOD TUE AM AS MODERATE/STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT DRAPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. CYCLOGENESIS IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL INDUCE A STRONG WESTERLY H85 FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUE AFTN HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS FROM W-E AND DRIVE
TEMPERATURES UPWARD. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE 80S OUT WEST TUE AFTN AS
H85 TEMPS APPROACH 20C. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH A MOD/STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS FRONT AS
IN PRIOR RUNS AND THUS I HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FOR THU
AM. COOL SFC RIDGE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... BUT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS
AND CLOUDS AND MOISTURE STREAM BACK OVER THE AREA. SCA'S CAN ARE
LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS ADEQUATE
ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THU NGT-FRI. THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT FRIDAY AFTN WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTH
TEXAS IN ITS WAKE. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA NEXT SUNDAY. THE EL-NINO TYPE PATTERN CONTINUES.
MARINE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RELAXED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME OFFSHORE
BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 55 63 57 74 59 / 20 30 40 20 10
VICTORIA 48 58 53 72 55 / 10 40 50 30 10
LAREDO 51 65 55 82 56 / 10 20 30 10 10
ALICE 52 62 56 76 56 / 20 30 40 20 10
ROCKPORT 54 64 59 73 60 / 10 40 50 30 10
COTULLA 46 60 52 76 52 / 10 20 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 54 64 56 78 58 / 20 30 40 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 56 65 61 74 61 / 20 40 40 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
