FXUS63 KDLH 262117
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM JUST NORTH OF BRAINERD TO NEAR ELY. UNUSUALLY...THE COLD AIR
IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE WARMER AIR TO THE NORTH.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH WEAK WAA/DPVA AND
FRONTOGENESIS HAS CAUSED BANDS OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NRN
AND WRN ZONES TODAY...WITH SOME STATIONS REPORTING SNOWFALL RATES
OF A HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR. THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE
MOVING WEST...AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR WRN TIER OF ZONES THIS
EVENING AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM12...WHICH SEEMS TO BE DOING FAIRLY
WELL WITH THE PRECIP FORECAST. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE EXTENDED OUR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR WRN ZONES UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. LATER TONIGHT AND FARTHER EAST...DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE
THE THE END TO DISSIPATE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
HOWEVER WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SNOWBELT OF NWRN WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY....BUT DELTA T VALUES
WILL BE ONLY MARGINAL. BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN DELTA T VALUES WILL
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AFTER A SECOND COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THEREFORE WILL MENTION SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE
GOGEBIC RANGE...BUT ONLY 2 TO 4 INCHES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLDER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A FAIRLY BRIEF DRY AND COOLER PERIOD. THERE 
WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AIR ON TUESDAY INITIALLY WITH THE HIGH BUT 
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE 
REGION IN FAST PACIFIC FLOW. PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME 
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT DUE TO FAST SPEED AND WEAKNESS 
OF THE SYSTEM AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.  THERE IS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD 
AIR FOR THE NEW YEAR WITH A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE
EXPCT CIGS BL OVC30 ACROSS MN NRN MN WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL PROVIDE MORE -SN WITH VSBYS BLO 1SM. IN WIS...A BIT
DRIER AIR WILL GIVE PERIOD OF BKN MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL LAST
THRU THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL FILL IN AGAIN LATE TNT/EARLY
MORNING ABOUT 10Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  25  11  18 /  40  20  10  10 
INL  18  26   8  15 /  60  30  20  10 
BRD  14  26  10  20 /  60  20  10  10 
HYR   9  26  13  23 /  30  30  20  10 
ASX  13  29  17  24 /  50  50  40  30 

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033>036.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

BERDES/CLC