FXUS64 KFWD 040519 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1119 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS....KACT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW.
AS FOR KDFW TRACON...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. CONTINUED
VFR CIGS...NORTH WINDS AND SOME PERIODS OF FLURRIES DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
EVENING.
AS FOR KACT...WILL BEGIN LIGHT SNOW AT MID MORNING WITH LIFT MAXING
OUT IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME...THEN ENDING RAPIDLY EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY SKC AT 23Z. POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AT KACT IS 1/4 TO 1/2
INCH WITH LITTLE STICKING TO CONCRETE RUNWAYS AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EVENT. DURING THE
MAX LIFT PERIOD (16-18Z)...SNOW INTENSITY COULD INCREASE AND RESULT
IN SOME LOWERING OF VFR CIGS AND BRIEF MVFR VIS. 75
&&
.UPDATE...
A COLD AND CLOUDY NIGHT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE 30S AS OF 9 PM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN
BASIN THIS EVENING WHERE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH IS THE STRONGEST. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS BY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL DRY BELOW ABOUT 750 MB
SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW TOTALS IN THE SOUTH WILL BE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...WE WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN PLACE SINCE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AND MY CREATE
SOME SLICK ROADS.
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
PRECIPITATION.
MODELS HAVE COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER TODAY...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. THERE WILL BE LIFT IN THE MID
AND UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE NORTH FLOW AT LOW LEVELS
WILL KEEP REINFORCING THE DRY AIR THE SNOW HAS TO FALL
THROUGH...EVAPORATING MUCH OF THE PRECIP BEFORE IT HITS THE
GROUND. THE BEST LIFT AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOUTHEAST OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACCUMULATIONS...JUST ENOUGH TO
MAKE THE ROADS SLICK.
FARTHER NORTH...SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO
ISOLATED FLURRIES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20/30 CORRIDOR. IF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING MODELS SHOW FURTHER DRYING IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...WE MAY SEE ONLY CLOUDS AND VIRGA IN NORTH TEXAS.
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A COOL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE IS
TOO LIMITED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE GFS FORECASTS RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW NEXT WEDNESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HAS THIS COLD
FRONT MUCH DRIER AND THUS HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES...
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED SATURDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL REACH THE 50S...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 30 39 25 53 38 / 10 10 5 0 5
WACO, TX 32 35 25 50 37 / 10 30 10 0 5
PARIS, TX 26 42 23 49 32 / 10 10 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 28 40 24 52 36 / 10 10 5 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 26 40 24 51 35 / 10 10 5 0 5
DALLAS, TX 30 40 25 53 39 / 10 10 5 0 5
TERRELL, TX 29 40 24 52 37 / 10 10 10 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 29 37 25 52 37 / 10 30 10 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 28 33 25 50 38 / 10 40 10 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ141>143-147-148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
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