FXUS64 KHUN 271115 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
515 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (THROUGH MONDAY)... 
DEEP UPR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY 
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY WITH CURRENT /09Z/
TEMPS RANGING FROM 29F IN FAYETTEVILLE TN AND CULLMAN...TO 34F IN
FT PAYNE WHERE SKIES JUST RECENTLY CLEARED. DESPITE COLD START...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL PUSH TEMPS UP TO THE LWR/MID
50S THIS AFTN. LOOK FOR ANOTHER FREEZING/SUB-FREEZING NIGHT
TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND DRY LOW LVL CONDITIONS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY.

DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE 
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL 
IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE 
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPR TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST/GREAT 
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST...CROSSING THE AREA 
BTWN 06Z-18Z/MON. ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS STRENGTHENING UPR JET AHEAD OF NRN 
STREAM TROUGH SETS UP ALONG SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. BUMPED POPS 
UP BOTH SUN NGT AND MONDAY TO REFLECT INCREASING CONFIDENCE. MONDAY 
WILL BE A WET...COLD/BLUSTERY DAY AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL TO
THE LWR/MID 40S BY LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY INFLUENCE THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT 
LARGER STORM SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE SRN PLAINS/WRN GULF. MEDIUM RANGE 
MODELS DIVERGE ON PROGRESSION/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z/27
ECMWF MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLES. OPERATIONAL GFS SOLN REMAINS AN 
OUTLIER GIVEN ITS FASTER MOVEMENT AND POSITION OF SFC LOW...SO WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND FCSTD POPS/TEMPS 
REFLECT THIS THINKING. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE 
SYSTEM...PULLED POPS BACK A BIT TUES NGT BUT INCREASED THEM ON WED. 
IT APPEARS THAT UPR LOW WILL TRACK VERY CLOSE THE AREA LATE WED INTO 
WED NGT THUS KEEPING SFC LOW...AND BETTER INSTABILITY/FORCING... 
SOUTH AND EAST OF NRN AL/SRN TN. THAT SAID...A COOL AND WET WEDNESDAY
CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARD THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COOL. NADLER.83
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
     LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
     MORGAN.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...09
DISCUSSION...83