FXUS63 KDDC 242120
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO
SATURDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST. A COLD UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES. UPPER LEVEL WAVES WITH SOME
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN
KANSAS INTO SATURDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH. COLD ARCTIC
AIR IS PLUNGING INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW
-12C. STRONG WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 6 PM SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. WIND CHILLS MAY ALSO REACH
NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS FRIDAY MORNING OF
NEAR 15 BELOW ZERO FROM DODGE CITY AND NORTH.
FOR TONIGHT LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO
45 MPH DECREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH. LOWS IN THE DRY AND COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT IN THE LOW TEENS FAR
SOUTHEAST. ON FRIDAY LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH WINDS AGAIN
INCREASING TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTH AND EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -12C AND THICKENING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAV
GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK WAY TOO WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ON FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOK FOR CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS NOT AS COLD
AND IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. FOR SATURDAY LOOK FOR CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS MODERATING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THESE TEMPS ARE STILL COLDER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS
COULD BE STRONG IN THE NORTH WITH A TIGHT 850MB GRADIENT.
DAYS 3-7...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TRACK AND STRENGTH OF OUR NEXT ERN
PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE SW CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHAT ALL
THE MODELS DO AGREE UPON IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS MID WEEK WITH WRN KS
PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 25H JET STREAK LATE
TUE-EARLY WED. AS A RESULT THE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
TUE/WED. ALSO IF THE GENERAL TREND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS TRUE THEN
THIS NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA MID WEEK SO AT
THIS TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER SW KS...IF ANY SNOW DOES DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.
RIGHT NOW AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE OUT SOME LT SN/FLURRIES
LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK THE INITIAL PLAN WILL BE TO FOLLOW THE
MEAN TREND OF THE 9-85H. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THAT HIGHS BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES MON AND TUES.
&&
AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AROUND, OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY TONIGHT THEY STILL SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVERNIGHT.
SAT LOOP ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING SKIES IN PORTIONS OF WRN KS. THE
NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE WITH THIS AND IT ALSO INDICATES
THIS CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
AS A RESULT LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24HRS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 7 20 13 27 / 0 10 10 0
GCK 6 19 11 27 / 0 10 10 0
EHA 9 24 15 30 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 8 23 13 30 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 6 19 12 24 / 0 10 10 10
P28 13 24 15 28 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
FN06/18
