FXUS63 KGID 230948
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
348 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINTER WEATHER 
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION JUST 
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT THIS IS 
MOST LIKELY FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH 
IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. FROM REPORTS IT 
SEEMS THAT SLIPPERY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND AROUND THE AREA. 

MODELS HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LOOK OF THIS 
STORM. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS 
AND THE TIMING AND LOCATION HAVE CHANGED. HATE TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES 
ON JUST ONE MODEL RUN...BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE LATEST RUN. 

FOR TODAY THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO 
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE FIRST 
UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FAIRLY GOOD QPF IS POSSIBLE AS 
THIS MOVES THROUGH. THE CONCERN IS MAINLY PRECIPITATION TYPE. THERE 
IS STILL A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALOFT...PARTICULARLY 
IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 
COOL THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY. THE NORTHWEST IS 
STILL FAIRLY LIKELY TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING UNTIL 
THE DENDRITIC LAYER MOISTENS UP...BUT THAT SHOULD BE EASILY BY MID 
DAY. THERE REMAINS A WARM LAYER ALOFT FOR THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA THIS MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT APPEARS TO RETREAT 
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BY THIS EVENING MIXED FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND 
SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. 

HERE IS WHERE MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH THE 
UPPER LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST THE DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AM 
STILL PLANNING TO KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL TREND TOWARDS 
LOWER AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND LIGHT AS OPPOSED TO MODERATE SNOW. THIS 
LIGHTER PERIOD FOR SNOW SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH 
THURSDAY. 

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA 
TO CENTRAL IOWA. THIS SHOULD BEING SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW INTO THE 
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE 
HEAVIER SNOW AGAIN WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. 

IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE 
NIGHT TONIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. THIS WILL 
CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE LOW FINALLY MOVES FAR 
ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THAT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME 
TO AN END. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/ 

AVIATION...06Z TAF. PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KGRI TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS BELOW 500FT AND VISIBILITIES 2 MILES OR
LESS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AFTER 12Z...AND AS THAT HAPPENS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO SNOW. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS SOLUTIONS STILL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE HEAVIEST FROM MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL SNOW IN THE FORECAST AT
KGRI...BUT MAY IMPROVE THE VISIBILITY A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR 
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR 
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$