FXUS63 KICT 120533
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. SINCE THE
STRATUS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...TEND TO THINK THAT THE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE NOW QUICKLY ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK
IN CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT...AS WELL AS IFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF
SITES...IF NOT IFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN
THE DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE AND VISIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.
SCHRECK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/
UPDATE...
MADE A FEW EDITS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. STRATUS IS MOVING
IN FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THE EVENING...SO HAVE MADE THE NECESSARY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. ALSO...LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE AREA WOULD SEE FREEZING
DRIZZLE TOMORROW BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...SO MADE SOME
TWEAKS IN THOSE AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING.
SCHRECK
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS TAF FORECAST IS LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. AREA OF STRATUS HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. AS THIS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...WOULD EXPECT IFR TYPE FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP AT
KRSL AND KSLN ESPECIALLY...AND POSSIBLY SOME MVFR TYPE FREEZING
FOG AT KHUT...KICT...AND KCNU. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
DURING THE MORNING...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE TO NON-
FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SCHRECK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES...FOG/STRATUS AND LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP CHANCES
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE SNOW COVERED CENTRAL COUNTIES...THEN THE
TIMING/ONSET OF NEXT COLD SURGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT EARLY AFTERNOON...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW
COVER MELTING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR...WITH DEEP SNOW COVER
TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SATURDAY. THE SHORT TERM
CHALLENGE IS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE ALOFT NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. STRATOCU CEILINGS WERE ALREADY
ENCROACHING THE OKLAHOMA BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE INITIAL ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION.
THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AT THE SURFACE WAS STILL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BUT IS PROGGED TO ADVECT RATHER QUICKLY
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS DURING SATURDAY MORNING.
THOUGH THE POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL KANSAS...IT WILL
ALSO BE ADVECTING ACROSS THE COLDER SNOW COVER IN THESE AREAS.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS SOME FREEZING FOG COULD DEVELOP DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH PERHAPS MORE EXTENSIVE FREEZING FOG BY
MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. THE TRANSIENT WEAK LIFT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE DAY...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING
PRECIP POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDDAY. SOME SORT OF ADVISORY...EITHER FOR
DENSE FREEZING FOG OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
A WEAK MORE SUBTLE TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW
THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW TO REMAIN MORE SOUTHERLY OR ONLY WEAKLY
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH MAY TEND TO HOLD IN/ OR
RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SNOW COVERED CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL SHOW THIS MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...WITH AN EASTWARD TREND IN CLEARING OR LIFTING OF THIS
FREEZING FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
STRATUS AND A LIGHT FOG EVENT WITH CHANCES OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY INTO PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
GOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT
TWEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A NON-DIURNAL TREND TONIGHT.
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE MAIN LONGER TERM CHALLENGE IS WITH
THE NEXT SURGE OF POLAR AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS
FASTER WITH THE INITIAL SHALLOW SURGE ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEEPER/REINFORCING SURGE ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE MADE ONLY SLIGHT
TWEAKS...IF ANY...TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODEST MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DARMOFAL
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRATOCU SPREADING SLOWLY N TOWARD THE OK/KS BORDER 5,000-6,000FT.
THEREFORE KCNU & KICT TO REMAIN IN VFR STATUS UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING WHEN IFR CIGS ~800FT WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY N ACROSS KS. DUE
TO EXTENSIVE SNOW FIELD AREAS OF FZFG ARE LIKELY OVER KRSL WHERE
CIGS & VSBYS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO LIFR STATUS ~12/09Z WITH
FZFG LIKELY REDUCING VSBYS TO 1/2SM WITH CIGS ~200FT. A 2ND
TERMINAL DRAWING CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IS KCNU...WHERE AREAS OF
-FZDZ ARE POSSIBLE 12/12Z-12/15Z WITH CIGS ~800FT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
ALL 5 TERMINALS IN IFR/LIFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
ES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 31 41 27 50 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 23 38 22 47 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 27 39 25 47 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 28 41 31 49 / 10 20 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 30 43 32 52 / 10 20 10 10
RUSSELL 14 33 16 37 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 16 35 17 41 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 22 35 19 40 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 23 36 21 44 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 29 43 34 52 / 10 20 10 10
CHANUTE 30 41 32 48 / 10 20 10 10
IOLA 31 40 32 48 / 10 20 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 30 42 34 51 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
