FXUS64 KHGX 111148
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
548 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR BETWEEN 14Z AND
18Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LIFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE ANOTHER PROBLEM AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
KGLS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER RIDES
COOLER SURFACE AIR. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL HELP FOCUS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE
IS ALSO 850 MB CONVERGENCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THIS
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH. SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL ALSO LIE IN A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUAD THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN LIFT. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL END
SATURDAY MORNING SO AM EXPECTING RAIN CHANCES TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
DIVERGE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR MONDAY. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A COASTAL
TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES WHILE THE GFS
AND NAM SHOW CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER RAINFALL. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING ENDING RAIN CHANCES. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S WITH RAIN AND THICK
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. A SLOW WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL TREND COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT
AND REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DEW POINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 60S. WITH WATER TEMPS NEAR 60...IT LOOKS LIKE SEA FOG
WILL BECOME A BIT OF A PROBLEM. THE NAM IS COOLER AND DRIER THAN
THE GFS SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER FOG WILL
DEVELOP. E-NE WINDS TODAY WILL HELP ELEVATE TIDE LEVELS. TIDES ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING 1.0 TO 1.3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK TODAY SO TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE MORE.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED DETAILING THE THREAT. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  43  54  45  70 /  70  70  40  10  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  44  56  46  71 /  70  70  50  10  10 
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  55  59  55  71 /  70  70  50  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP 
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40