FXUS66 KSGX 271647 CCA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
847 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AS A TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE 
STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. 
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING 
OVER THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH 
SATURDAY WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN OFFSHORE FLOW 
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... 
DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER LATE 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WEAKENING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO... 
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE GREAT BASIN 
AND THE COAST BUT IS TRENDING ONSHORE AND SHOULD BECOME ONSHORE THIS 
AFTERNOON. ALREADY AREAS OF FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH SHOULD 
REACH THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DENSE 
FOG AT THE BEACHES AND ALONG THE COAST AS THE FOG MOVES ONSHORE BUT 
SHOULD LIFT INTO A STRATUS LAYER FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

SATELLITE PHOTOS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH 
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AS IT MOVES SOUTH 
BUT LOOKING AT QPF AMOUNTS UP NORTH...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR 
TO BE QUITE LIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SO THE ASSOCIATED 
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH WITH THE FRONT TO BE MOVING DOWN THE COAST 
AND COULD PICK UP A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THE FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. STILL LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS SHOULD 
BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEY 
AREAS AND A QUARTER INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES THE IDEA OF EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THE UPPER 
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO NORTHERN BAJA ON SUNDAY. THIS 
COULD BRING ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF 
THE MOUNTAINS TO CONTINUE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS AT 
LEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION FOR THE SAN 
DIEGO AREA CONTINUES MOISTURE INTO SUNDAY EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPING 
OFFSHORE FLOW SO NOT EXPECTING A RAPID DRYING OUT ON SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVINGS SOUTH LATE IN 
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
271545Z...EXPECT RAPID RETURN OF MARINE LAYER TODAY AND INCREASING 
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ALREADY HAVE SCATTERED 
STRATUS LAYER OVER WATER APPROACHING COAST. STRATUS LAYER SPREADING 
INLAND AFTER 0000 UTC REACHING LOWER COASTAL SLOPES BY 0600 UTC.  
VERY LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE COASTAL 
AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INLAND AIRPORTS DURING EVENING HOURS. 
MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED AFTER 0600 UTC AS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE 
DEEPENS AND MERGES WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH. 
NEAR SATURATED AIR MASS EXPECTED BELOW FL090 BY 0900 UTC. SOUTHWEST 
WINDS 35 TO 60 KT IN THE FL100-FL150 LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN MOUNTAIN 
WAVE ACTIVITY OVER DESERTS. AIR MASS STILL NEAR SATURATED BELOW 
FL090 SATURDAY AND FREEZING LEVEL LOWERING TO FL060. 

&&

.MARINE...
SURF HEIGHTS 5 TO 10 FEET BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO 
COUNTY BEACHES THIS MORNING. INNER BUOYS SHOW +6 FEET AT 17 SECONDS 
WHILE OUTER BUOYS ARE BOUNCING BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET. SWELL/SURF 
HEIGHTS STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 FEET BASED ON 
WAMIII MODEL. UPDATED SURF FORECAST AND WILL BE ADDING SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY TO INNER WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO COMBINED 
SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET. 

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...  CORRECTED
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY 
     COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY 
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON 
     TO 8 AM PST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE 
     MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN 
     CLEMENTE ISLAND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 
     MIDNIGHT PST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN 
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HORTON
AVIATION/MARINE...BALFOUR