FXUS63 KPAH 242018
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
218 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP AND WITH LATEST MODELLING/BUFKIT
SHOWING GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SURFACE THRU AT LEAST EARLY FRI
PM...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORY THRU 00Z SAT. COOLING
AIRMASS TOMORROW-TOMORROW NIGHT WILL ALSO YIELD WIND CHILLS INTO
20S/TEENS TOO.

THREAT OF FLOODING IN SEMO WILL CONTINUE TIL SHOWERS BREAK THIS
EVENING. PROBABLY WONT EXTEND FLOOD WATCH SINCE MUCH OF AREA
ALREADY WARNED FOR...INSTEAD WILL LET WARNINGS DO THE
SERVICE...AND THESE MAY CONTINUE THRU EVENING/OR AT LEAST TIL FEED
OF BEST DBZ'S IS THRU AREA...MODELS SHOW THAT HAPPENING BY 06Z.

BROKE WX GRIDS INTO 3 HR INCREMENTS AFT 06Z TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
CHANGE-OVER TO -SN. LOW LAYER TEMPS DON'T SUPPORT CHANGE-OVER TIL
AFT 09Z MOST LOCALES...EVEN AFT 12-15Z IN OUR NE. BY THEN QPF IS
MINISCULE SO WHILE WE CARRY POPS WE KEEP'EM LOW WITH LITTLE/NO
ACCUMS EXPECTED. MODIFIED DIURNAL TEMP CURVE TOMORROW WITH EARLY
HIGH AND TEMPS STEADYING OR DROPPING THRU DAY DEPENDING ON 
LOCATION.

PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW/PINWHEELING ENERGY ACROSS MS VALLEY LINGERS
SMALLISH SNOW CHANCES BUT MORE LIKELY FLURRY ACTIVITY THRU
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT EVEN INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY COULD BE
INTERESTING AS A FINAL SLING ACROSS OF MOISTURE/ENERGY COULD PAINT
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR NRN 1/2...BUT FOR NOW THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE COLLABORATIVE STOMACH TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE PACKAGE.
WE'LL MONITOR THIS THRU PRESS TIME AND MAYBE MAKE A FINAL MASSAGE
TO SUNDAY IN THIS DIRECTION...OR AS FAR AS THE PICTURE WILL
CONCEDE. SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP AN EYE UPON THOUGH.

COOLER TEMPS BY LATE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE INTO/THRU MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS COULD ALSO POSE A DILEMMA IF DAYS 6-8 MODEL FLIRTATIONS
OF A RETURN OVERRUNNING PCPN SCENARIO STRIKE AT NIGHT...WHEN TEMPS
COULD STILL BE RUNNING IN THE 20S. TOO MUCH FLIP/FLOP RIGHT NOW
FOR BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT BUT IT TOO IS SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE UPON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z...WITH SOME DROPS TO 
MVFR AT KCGI AND KPAH.  AFTER 00Z...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH IFR AT 
TIMES...MAINLY WITH PRECIP.  WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST 
AFTER 22Z...TAPERING OFF AT 05Z AT KCGI...TO 11Z AT KOWB.  SOUTHEAST 
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN SOUTH AND INCREASE 
TO 30 TO 40 KTS GUSTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE 
     GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-
     SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE 
     GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-
     SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-PERRY IL-
     PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE 
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

$$