FXUS66 KLOX 091156
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 AM PST WED DEC 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY AND WILL
LIKELY LAST UNTIL FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM IS DUE IN SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
ANOTHER COLD MORNING BUT HIGH CLOUDS AND HIGHER HGTS ARE KEEPING
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO LOW. STILL WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND SO
THERE WILL BE SOME FROST ACROSS THE AREA BUT PROBABLY LESS THAN
MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FREEZE AREAS WILL ALSO BE MORE ISOLATED.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WILL BE COOL BUT NOT COLD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP ABOUT 4 DEGREES FROM YDYS CHILLY READINGS.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE 06Z
GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WITH TWO WAVES THE
FIRST WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND WILL MOVE OVER DURING THE DAY RAINFALL
WITH THIS PORTION SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A HALF INCH AND LIKELY ONLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER DOWNTOWN L.A. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF LULL DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE SECOND PART OF THE SYSTEM
WILL ROLL THROUGH FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON FRIDAY. THIS PART LOOKS A
LITTLE JUICIER AND COULD PRODUCE UP TO HALF INCH OF RAIN AND A
LITTLE MORE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. THIS STORM WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
WARMER THAN MONDAYS AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET.
ONE WORRY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOR THE INTERIOR OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IF THE
RAIN ARRIVES BEFORE THERE IS LOW LEVEL WARMING THERE IS A RISK OF
FREEZING RAIN.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE ACTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FLOW PATTERN OVERHEAD
WILL STILL BE WESTERLY AND THE NEXT STORM WILL JUST COME ZIPPING IN.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
THE LONG RANGE MDLS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. RAIN WILL AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GFS
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE RAIN THAN THE NAM SO THE MORNING
MAY BE RAIN FREE. THIS STORM HAS SEVERAL VORT LOBES WITH IT AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THIS STORM ARE AROUND AN INCH
COAST AND VLYS AND ONE AND HALF TO TWO AND HALF IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE NOT BEEN PREFORMING WELL WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LATELY SO WOULD NOT BUT A LOT OF STOCK IN THE THESE NUMBERS.
THIS STORM HAS A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY WITH IT AND WHILE SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 6000 FEET THEY WILL LIKELY LOWER SUNDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR.
THE STORM SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A LITTLE
RIDGE POPS UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOULD ALL FOR A COUPLE OF DRY
DAYS WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARDS BUT NOT TOO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
09/1200Z.
CAVU THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR KSMX AND KSBP.
KLAX AND KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE CAVU TAF.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FROST ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...ASR
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