FXUS63 KGRB 280947
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
347 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOTS OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS. MOST OPAQUE CLOUDS SHOULD BE IN THE
NORTH WHERE FORCING IS BEST. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW WHAT WE PREVIOUSLY HAD AS TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE LOWER
THAN WHAT WE HAD FORECAST AND DUE TO EFFECTS OF CLOUD COVER. 

UPPER TROUGH PRODUCES DECENT DIFFLUENCE ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME 
SNOW SHOWERS. RAISED LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. DYNAMICS SEEM ADEQUATE TO
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES IN THE SOUTH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED IN VILAS COUNTY
BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL IN LOW LEVELS AND THERE IS
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT WILL LIMIT VERTICAL EXTENT OF CLOUDS.
EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT...IN ADDITION TO AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE CWA. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS WERE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE NORTH. SO HAVE CHANCE AND/OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN SHOULD ALSO BE BETWEEN SURFACE SYSTEMS. AFTER THAT...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE EC WAS A LITTLE DRIER IN THE NORTH BUT INDICATED
SOME QPF ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH A SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS HAD QPF NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH
THE NORTHERN BRANCH LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT DID
NOT BRING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM INTO THE PICTURE...KEEPING IT WELL
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

MOSTLY ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...GOOD FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 7000 FT. CIGS WILL LOWER LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES. VFR/MVFR CIGS AND SNOW FLURRIES
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A ISW TO MNM LINE WITH MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF A RRL TO IMT LINE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
RDM/MG