FXUS61 KMHX 062030
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN IN THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A FEW
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 30S OVER MOST LAND AREAS TONIGHT. SOME PATCHES OF FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...NAM12 AND GFS STILL INDICATES WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH TO ROTATE INTO COASTAL SECTIONS ON MONDAY. THE NAM12
INDICATES LIGHT QPF OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WHILE THE GFS A BIT MORE
ROBUST WITH MOISTURE/QPF. KEPT THE SMALL POPS IN OVER THE REGION
FOR MONDAY...STARTING IN SRN SECTIONS EARLY IN THE DAY THEN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MONDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH
SHOULD KEEP TUESDAY PTCLOUDY WITH PRECIP REMAINING WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY
WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S AND MAXES INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 50S. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...NEXT SYSTEM TO START TO AFFECT REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS IN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS
STILL WANTS TO INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. RAIN WILL BEGIN AFTER 00Z WEDS AND CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY
WEDS WITH SOME DRY SLOTTING PSBL WEDS AFTERNOON. MODEST
INSTABILITY INDICATED DURING THE DAY WEDS...SO WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF SPREADS PRECIP INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM WITH
PRECIP ARRIVING EARLIER DURING SATURDAY. TRENDED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS HPC GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO NORMAL EXCEPT FOR MAXES ON WEDS IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH COULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. 

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY
HIGH BKN CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. INVERTED SURFACE
TROF EXPECT TO FORM ALONG THE COAST MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE BKN-OVC
STRATOCU DECK DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
OF A CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...TIME SECTIONS SHOW 50+ KTS
JUST ABOVE GROUND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR TO THE EVENT
LAST WEEK...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A POSSIBILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER/VFR. 

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...12Z WAVEWATCH AND IN-HOUSE SWAN MODEL INDICATE
CURRENT HEADLINES ON TRACK ENDING THE SMALL CRAFT DUE TO SEAS AT
6 PM SO WILL MAKE NO CHANGES THERE. SENT OUT AFTERNOON ZONES WITH
AN ADDITIONAL REST OF THIS AFTERNOON PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. AN INVERTED TROF IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. 12Z GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM AND USED A
BLEND OF THE TWO. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY TRIED TO FAVOR A
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WINDS. FOR NOW CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KNOTS
BUT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY IN THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE LEG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE AFTER THAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA