FXUS65 KABQ 090025 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
525 PM MST TUE DEC 8 2009
...HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES CANCELLED...
.UPDATE...
TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST
LOCALES. DECIDED TO JUST CANCEL THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. STILL MIGHT SEE A FEW LOCALES /ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE WEST TEXAS BORDER/ SUSTAINED AT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A SHORT
TIME BUT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO WITH ALL SPEEDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. STILL
EXPECT GENERAL BREEZINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. UPDATED WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND ALSO SENT A NEW NPWABQ.
NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.
KW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MST TUE DEC 8 2009...
WINDS ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES STILL ON
TRACK AND WILL NOT ALTER. HIGHEST GUST SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 77 MPH
AT KSRR. FOR REFERENCE...THOUGH A DIFFERENT ANIMAL...HURRICANE
FORCE WIND SPEEDS START AT 74 MPH.
SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS THE NORTH. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED AT ANGEL FIRE...BUT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ENDED...THEREFORE...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4PM. NONETHELESS...UP TO AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BLOWING SNOW MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IN THESE
AREAS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...SOME ICY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE SNOWMELT
REFREEZES. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JUAN VALLEY
TONIGHT.
ARCTIC AIR WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEEP INTO NORTHEAST NM OVERNIGHT.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW -5
DEGREES.
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT OTHERWISE A MUCH QUIETER DAY ACROSS THE STATE.
WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT WILL BE NOTHING
LIKE TODAYS WINDS.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS
WILL COME ACROSS THE STATE IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SCALED BACK POPS A
BIT MORE AS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO REACH LOWER
LEVELS. REGARDLESS...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
SEVERAL MORE PERTURBATIONS MAY SET OFF PERIODIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON TAP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME SMALL POPS AND
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT.
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.AVIATION...
DANGEROUSLY HIGH WINDS THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES FARTHER EAST OF THE STATE. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SFC WINDS EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE AT
KLVS...KTCC AND KROW WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z. MEANWHILE...LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF
NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY SURGE OF
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY IMPACTING AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS KTCC
WHERE IFR/LIFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP. GIVEN ITS SHALLOW NATURE...THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT WEST OF A KRTN TO KTCC
LINE. THE ONLY OTHER NOTEWORTHY AVIATION WEATHER-RELATED CONCERN
WILL BE LOCAL IFR OR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN TO
INCLUDE KFMN. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KGUP...BUT ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. KJ
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN WAKE OF TODAY/S POWERFUL COLD FRONT...A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A MUCH
LESS ACTIVE PATTERN TAKING HOLD. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OUTSIDE THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WEST TO EAST OR ZONAL
PATTERN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF MINOR DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING OCCASIONAL MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO
MOST AREAS ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN...WITH A
GRADUAL DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN
SO...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL
BECOME BETTER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS...AND RH RECOVERIES WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
KJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON...................... 13 35 9 36 / 5 5 0 5
DULCE........................... 5 28 -4 32 / 10 5 0 5
CUBA............................ 6 32 0 35 / 10 5 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 8 36 2 40 / 5 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 10 35 7 38 / 5 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 10 38 5 42 / 5 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 13 40 11 46 / 5 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 19 48 18 52 / 5 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... -2 24 -9 30 / 20 10 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 6 32 7 33 / 10 5 0 5
PECOS........................... 9 33 7 38 / 10 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... -4 26 -9 28 / 10 10 0 0
RED RIVER....................... -4 24 -11 29 / 10 10 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -6 23 -12 28 / 20 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 1 26 -3 31 / 10 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 12 36 7 39 / 5 5 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 8 30 9 35 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 13 33 12 37 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 19 40 20 42 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 21 41 22 43 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 19 42 15 44 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 21 41 21 43 / 5 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 19 46 16 47 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 21 41 20 43 / 5 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 23 50 21 52 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 13 36 11 40 / 5 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 15 35 14 40 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 14 32 15 35 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 22 42 22 46 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 21 47 22 50 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 27 44 24 48 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... -2 28 2 32 / 5 5 0 0
RATON........................... 3 31 5 34 / 10 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 11 34 12 40 / 5 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 1 27 12 35 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 12 32 15 38 / 5 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 15 41 17 45 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 21 45 21 50 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 10 40 15 44 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 14 42 20 47 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 18 43 21 49 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 19 48 20 52 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 27 50 27 57 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 27 52 27 59 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 25 51 27 55 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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