FXUS64 KBMX 120355
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
930 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

.UPDATE...FOR EVENING WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT ECHOES BEGINNING TO GAIN SOME STRENGTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA 
AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH.  FROM THE LATEST RUNS...THIS LOOKS TO BE A 
VERY SLOW PROCESS...AND TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THAT WE ARE INTO 
THE NOWCASTING OF THE EVENT...HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS ALMOST A 
CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.  THE REAL OBVIOUS CHALLENGE 
CONTINUES TO BE THE TEMP AND TD FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
EVE/OVERNIGHT.  I THINK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWNWARD ON THE 
TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO THANKS TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WE 
MAY EVEN SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE EXTREME SOUTH COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO 
UNTIL THE PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL IN THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE BL.  AT 
THIS POINT WILL STILL SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS 
FROZEN OR AT THE VERY LEAST A FROZEN/RAIN MIX AROUND 4AM FOR THE 
EXTREME SOUTH.  IT WILL THEN CREEP EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AFTER 
6AM...TO BE ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR AT AROUND THAT TIME.  DO THINK 
THAT WE WILL HOVER ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 34 FOR SEVERAL HOURS CLOSE TO 
SUNRISE.  THIS COULD AND WILL CREATE SOME PROBLEMS ON THE 
OVERPASSES...SO CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED UNTIL AN HOUR OR SO AFTER 
SUNRISE. I KNOW THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 30 AND 34...BUT 
THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS FOR SOME AREAS...BUT 
WITH WARMER GROUND TEMPS...STILL DON'T THINK WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD 
ISSUES...EVEN ON SECONDARY ROADS.

17/KLAWS 

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL EXPECTING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD TOMORROW AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z AND
16Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN FALLING EARLY MORNING AT MGM AND
TOI...ROUGHLY 09Z...WITH LIGHT RAIN AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF
BHM, EET, TCL AND ANB BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ICE PELLETS MIXED IN WITH THE ONSET OF THE RAIN BUT THIS
APPEARS TO BE VERY SHORT-LIVED. WILL RE-EXAMINE THE ICE POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE EVENING.

HEAVIER RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY 00Z.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

17/88