FXUS62 KMHX 100226
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
926 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SATURDAY AND
MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM WEDS...GUSTY SW/W WINDS CONTINUE WITH GOOD PRESSURE
RISES MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MIXING WILL KEEP MIN
TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 40S MOST AREAS. MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
ERODED BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM IN OVERNIGHT. MINIMAL
CHANGES TO CURRENT ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT EXCEPT TO REMOVE TIME
REFERENCES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROFFING COVERS MUCH OF CONUS WITH A DISTINCT SPLIT FLOW
REGIME. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL HELP INVIGORATE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A SWATH OF DEEPER
MOISTURE CREEPS UP INTO SOUTH COASTAL NC OVERNIGHT. GOOD MODEL
CONCENSUS FOR KEEPING ASSOCD PCPN MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG SOUTH COAST (MAINLY SOUTH OF
HATTERAS LATE TONIGHT (AND CONTINUING INTO FIRST HALF OF THU).
SW TO WEST BNDRY LAYER FLOW AND ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTH WILL HELP INHIBIT TEMPERATURE DECLINE OVRNGT. TEMPS WILL BE
REMAIN ABV CLIMO NORMS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 45-50F DEG RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL GRAZE THE AREA ON THURSDAY
BUT WILL HAVE 2 MAIN IMPACTS. THE FIRST IMPACT WILL BE TO SHUNT
ANY PCPN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OUT TO SEA BY AROUND MIDDAY. THE
SECOND AND MUCH LARGER IMPACT WILL BE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THAT
HAS BEEN BOTTLED UP OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS. HIGHS ON THU
WILL BE LARGELY IN THE MID 50S WHICH IS A BIT BLO NORMAL BUT
THE RAFTER TEMPS WILL PLUNGE IN A STRONG CAA SURGE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL DROP INTO MID TO UPPER 20S AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND HIGHS ON FRI ONLY REACHING MID OR UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL
BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS CAA EASES THRU THE PERIOD SO THE
ADDED EFFECTS OF WIND CHILL SHUD BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN COLDER TEMPS LIKELY FRI NIGHT AS BETTER DECOUPLING OCCURS
WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH. MID 20S WILL BE COMMON
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND EVEN OBX HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING NEAR
FREEZING BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING FOR THE OUTER
BANKS WHICH IS STILL IN GROWING SEASON.
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN ON SATURDAY PER MODEL
TRENDS AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
INFLOW WIL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COASTAL FRONT WILL MAKE INROADS BUT
FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE A COLD RAIN ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY AND SHUD BE A DRY DAY AS
MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA EITHER SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MON. MODEL CONCENSUS HARD TO COME BY GOING INTO
MIDWEEK SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR DAYS 6/7.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM WEDS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES
NOW. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO HIGHER
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 310 PM WED...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS WELL WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL JET
SLOWLY LIFTING OUT. THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BUILDING EAST. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 915 PM WEDNESDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
WIND GUSTS STILL TO 37 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY...AND WITH WINDS
STILL GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE...WILL EXTEND GALE WARNING
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST. GOOD PRESSURE RISES STILL
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 645 PM WEDS...JUST ISSUED AN UPDATE
TO THE COASTAL FORECAST AS HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS EXPIRING. MAIN
TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WITH NO CHANGE TO HEADLINES.
WILL MONITOR GALE WARNING SITUATION ON MIDDLE LEG AS WINDS STILL
GUSTING TO 41 KTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE GALE
WARNING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CTC
MARINE...CTC
