FXUS64 KOHX 081756
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1156 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.UPDATE...
SFC LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AND WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE. SHOULD SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY
BY THIS EVENING. POST FRONTAL GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHT AS WELL SO WE
WILL SEE THE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.

WILL UPDATE AND INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY WHICH WILL GO INTO EFFECT
AT 2 PM TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/ 

UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
FCST PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/FOG/PCPN INTO
WED MORNING AS CDFNT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY PASSES 06-10Z. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR TOWARD DAWN/AFTER AS DRY SLOT AND STRONG WINDS
MOVE IN RAPIDLY BEHIND BOUNDARY. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/ 

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS NOW OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MID STATE. A FEW TSTMS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS NORTHERN MS. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH PART OF MIDDLE TN. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 

FOR THE UPDATE...WILL REMOVE MORNING WORDING BUT WILL EMPHASIZE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOL T IN THE AFTERNOON. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/ 

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE BRINGING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT ALREADY UNDERWAY AS
LIGHT RAIN BEGINS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN JUST REACHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER RATHER QUICKLY
ALONG WITH VSBYS DURING THE MORNING DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL
INCREASE SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THERES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 23Z TO 03Z AT BNA...AND FROM 02Z TO 06Z AT CSV.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...(THRU THU)
CURRENT...CLOUDY NITE WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR RISING LAST FEW HOURS.
2 AM TEMPS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RAIN EVENT SHAPING UP FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCHES COMMON. CHANCE FOR SEVERE SHOULD HOLD OFF TO OUR S.

SYSTEM OFF SE CST TX AND MOVE NE INTO AR TODAY...WITH WMFNT MOVING
N ACROSS CWA. WIDESPREAD RW WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER TONITE AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AHEAD OF A
PLAINS SYTEM MOVING NE INTO GRTLKS REGION. FRONT SHOULD BE AROUND
BNA BY 06Z WED.

LITTLE CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN WED. TEMPS WILL FALL DURING DAY
WITH GUSTY W WINDS. THEN HI PRES BUILDS E...INTO SE MO BY 00Z FRI.

LONG TERM...
LOOKS LIKE A LITE PRECIP EVENT FOR FRI NITE INTO SAT NITE...WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT POSSIBLE. LOWERED POPS FOR FRI...AND KEPT LO
CHANCE POPS FOR RN/SN MIX THEREAFTER. BEST CHANCE FOR SN N PORIONS.

SUN INTO TUE LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ005>011-022>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

21