FXUS64 KOHX 120916
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
316 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC/LL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH H5 FLOW
REMAINING FLAT. SOUTHERN STREAM OF POLAR JET REMAINING OVER THE MID-
SOUTH WITH DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND PCPN JUST NORTH OF THE
GULF COAST.
NEWEST RUNS CONTINUE TO BRING UL JET AND DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TODAY/TONIGHT. WITH AIRMASS CURRENTLY VERY DRY...PCPN NOT EXPECTED
TO START UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AT THE EARLIER...AT WHICH TIME
WAA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL SWING. THUS THERE IS SEEMINGLY ONLY
A VERY SMALL WINDOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN. OVERALL...PCPN
WILL BE ALL LIQUID BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REMAIN THAT WAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL WEAK LL BOUNDARY AND
EXITING UL JET DRAW DEEP MOISTURE EAST.
BRIEF DRY PERIOD EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE
PCPN QUICKLY RETURNS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS POLAR JET AND FAIRLY STRONG
SFC/LL LOWS WORK ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST/GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SWING ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY
LARGELY ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXTEND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AND PLAN TO ADD CHANCE OF THUNDER. COLD FRONT JUST PAST CSV 12Z
TUESDAY THEN MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF UL
TROUGH.
SFC/LL HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW COMMENCING
ALOFT. EXPANSIVE DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND STAY
PUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SFC/LL HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST
AND UPPER FLOW FLATTENS.
LATE FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SEEMINGLY LIMITED THIS
FAR SOUTH THUS WILL LEAVE DRY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 44 39 51 43 / 70 100 40 10
CLARKSVILLE 43 40 49 42 / 70 100 20 10
CROSSVILLE 42 37 47 39 / 30 100 60 10
COLUMBIA 42 39 52 45 / 80 100 40 10
LAWRENCEBURG 40 39 52 45 / 80 100 30 10
WAVERLY 43 40 51 44 / 70 100 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
