FXUS65 KBYZ 160420
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
920 PM MST TUE DEC 15 2009
.EVENING UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
WITH THIS UPDATE. ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED TO OUR EAST
BUT STILL A LARGE TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH 40 DEGREES IN LIVINGSTON
AND 5 DEGREES FOR BAKER. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
SOME SNOW COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT FASTER
THIS EVENING. HAVE LOWERED FORECASTED LOWS A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM MILES CITY TO BAKER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. LAW ENFORCEMENT IN LIVINGSTON CONTINUES TO REPORT
BLOWING SNOW WITH FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS IN THE BIG TIMBER AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT GUSTY WINDS ARE CONTINUING JUST
WEST OF BIG TIMBER ACROSS WESTERN SWEET GRASS COUNTY THE CLOSER
ONE GETS TO LIVINGSTON. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN THE NYE AREA
CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 40 MPH. AS A RESULT...HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 11 PM AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
INCLUDING BILLINGS ARE 40 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST
EVENING. BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH MORE FROM
CURRENT READINGS. SO OVERALL...A MUCH MILDER NIGHT IN STORE.
MINOR UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
INTERESTING PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE LONG TERM WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECAST PERIOD A BIT DIFFICULT. PERIOD STARTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MOST OF THE WESTERN US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIVERGE ON A FEW
SMALLER DETAILS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WHICH COULD SUPPLY SOME
ENERGY AND INFUSE MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS A BULK OF THE MOISTURE MORE TO
THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY
IN THOSE PERIODS TO REFLECT THIS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOST OF
THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP TO
DECREASE OUR MAX TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE PUSHED TO OUR EAST...WITH 850
TEMPS AS LOW AS NEGATIVE 16 JUST CLIPPING OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES.
TUESDAY MORNING MAY BRING WITH IT SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT...BUT WILL LEAVE IT UP
TO FOLLOWING SHIFTS TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO INCREASE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. SINGER
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY NEAR KLVM. THEREFORE...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS REMAINS IN
EFFECT IN THE KLVM AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FROM KBIL AND KSHR EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE...INCLUDING KMLS...LATE ON WEDNESDAY. CAMPBELL/HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/040 027/040 022/037 022/039 022/032 023/030 020/029
02/W 02/J 01/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 031/044 030/040 023/037 025/040 025/030 025/029 020/030
02/W 23/J 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 12/S
HDN 014/041 019/040 017/036 016/040 013/032 014/030 014/030
02/W 02/J 21/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 006/032 015/035 014/031 014/034 012/028 013/024 013/024
02/J 02/J 21/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 012/039 018/040 017/037 016/039 015/030 014/030 015/029
00/B 02/J 31/B 11/B 21/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 003/035 015/038 015/032 010/032 009/026 010/021 010/024
02/J 02/J 31/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 011/042 018/041 016/036 014/040 013/032 013/031 018/030
00/B 03/J 31/B 12/J 21/B 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 41-65-66.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
