FXUS61 KPHI 010820
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS TO OUR NORTH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO TH EAST TONIGHT AND
A VERY WET AND INCREASINGLY WINDY SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH BUT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TO OUR NORTH AND MAY BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH'S CENTER OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST BUILDS NORTH DURING THE DAY AND RETURNS FAIR WEATHER
TO OUR REGION AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OR FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE POCONOS AND MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION RIDING NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES THE 80H 0C LINE WELL NORTH. THE WAA WILL LEND SIGNIFICANCE TO
THE FORECAST AS THE WARMING PROVIDES A GREATER CAPACITY TO HOLD MOISTURE.
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET...AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS
IS GATHERING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
...THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEND A HAND IN GIVING AN ASSIST IN BRINGING
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTH IN A HURRY. WE WILL HAVE GENERALLY FAIR SKIES
TONIGHT AND BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY BUT BY EVENING...A SOLID DECK OF
CLOUDS WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP WITH RAIN FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND MID 40S
TO UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE ISSUING ANOTHER PNS(PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR BARRIER
ISLAND RESIDENTS)
THIS IS THE PERIOD WHEN THE ACTION BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE JUICY LOW MOVES NORTH FROM THE
GULF COAST. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
80H WINDS CLOCKING ALONG AT 70K ON THE GFS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
40 TO 50 KT ON THE NAM WHICH RUNS A LITTLE BEHIND. ONCE THE WINDS
TURN SOUTH THEY PICK UP TO 70KT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WARM UP AT
80H SO NOT ALL OF THE WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE....UNLESS
HOWEVER THERE IS CONVECTION TO HELP IT ALONG. WE ARE IN A THREAT
OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND THE TYPICAL NARROW BANDED CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO FORM AND MAY VERY WELL BRING DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY AND THE WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH THEN NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IRREGARDLESS OF
CONVECTION THE GRADIENT ITSELF IS PROBABLY GOING TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY INLAND AND GALES ON THE COAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN SPITE OF THE FAST ECHO MOTION WILL BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE
FROM TRAINING ECHOES. THE K-VALUES ARE THEIR HEIGHTS IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE ADDED THE HEAVY RAIN AND A CHANCE OF A
TSTM.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW
LIFTING QUICKLY INTO EASTERN CANADA WHICH WILL DELAY THE RETURN OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW RESTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. BY FRIDAY...A WAVE
FORMS ON THE FROST THAT BLEW BY US ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OVER TO
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STILL A RATHER WEAK
THERMAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR REGION...THE LOW INTENSIFIES WHILE
BECOMING ELONGATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM OR NOT. THE
80H 0C LINE IS OFFSHORE AND THE WE FROM THE GFS IS AROUND 1/10TH OF
AN INCH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DUSTING FOR OUR SHORE COMMUNITIES BEFORE THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
FOR NOW WE HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS TO SATURDAY DAY WHICH AS OF TODAY
HAS MUCH TO DO WITH THE JET STREAK (TU OKX AND GH) AND THE NEGATIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE AS WITH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW ITSELF. STAY TUNED.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS DRY BUT COLD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROF MOVES THROUGH AND THEN ALLOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING VFR CONDS AND GENERALLY GOOD
FLYING WX. THE CURRENT NW WIND WILL BECOME MORE WLY TODAY AND THEN
NWLY AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTINESS LATER THIS AM AND
THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE PSBL.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
THINGS START TO HEAD SOUTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GLFMEX COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE NEWD TWD THE
MID-ATLC STATES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE COMPUTER MODELS AS
TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW, WHICH TAKES IT WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS,
ACRS WV, PA AND INTO NY STATE. RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN OR ERLY EVENING. RAIN WILL INCREASE
IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. RAIN
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER AS
WELL. EXPECT TO SEE LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS WITH THIS SYS. MVFR AND
IFR SEEM LIKELY AND THERE COULD EVEN BE LIFR, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AS THE
LOW MOVES BY AND WIND GUSTS COULD HIT THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH
SOME 30 KT GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE STORM MOVES AWAY
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GRT PLAINS AND NOSES EWD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
GUSTY WINDS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT
THINGS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN INTO FRIDAY, WITH VFR CONDS AS THE HIGH
MOVES CLOSER.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
EXPECT AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND AND SEAS. EVEN THOUGH BOTH
WAVES AND WIND ARE HOVERING AROUND MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH A LOWERING EXPECTED, WILL DROP THE SCA FLAGS WITH THE
ISSUANCE OF THE MORNING PACKAGE.
A STRONGER STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GLFMEX COAST TODAY
AND BEING MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CURRENT TRACK FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT INLAND, CROSSING WV, PA AND INTO NYS AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENG ON THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG
MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM DUE TO THE UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND ITS GULF
ORIGINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SEAS AS WELL.
GALES APPEAR LIKELY AT SOME POINT DURING THIS EVENT, MOST LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, POUNDING WAVES OF 6 TO 8
FEET IN THE SURF COULD PRODUCE SOME BEACH EROSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FULL MOON OCCURRING WEDNESDAY, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
QUITE HIGH. THE ONSHORE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INCREASING TIDAL DEPARTURES AND SOME MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SW AS THE LOW PASSES WHICH WILL HELP
ALLEVIATE ANY TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AS IT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME. ALL MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/GIGI
AVIATION...NIERENBERG
MARINE...NIERENBERG
