FXUS61 KRNK 060917
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
417 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE 20S...SOME TEENS...AND SNOW PACK ON
THE GROUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL RUN TEMPERATURES
WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE AND ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY ABOUT 5F OR SO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY
LIGHT WIND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
IN THE EVENING TO HAVE TEMPERATURES RADIATE DOWN VERY QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT...WARM AIR WILL BE BRUSHING UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPE AND COULD HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ALL THE SNOW TO MELT SUNDAY AND AS THIS
WARM AIR COMES OVER THE SNOW...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AND COULD AID
IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
NOT FEEL ANY EFFECT OF THIS WARM AIR MONDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS STILL HANGING ON TO SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ABOUT BLACK ICE
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 IN THE EAST THROUGH 1000 AM
THIS MORNING. BLACK ICE IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHES A
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL NOT
SHOWING VERY MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT BUT WITH UPSLOPE
WINDS...HAVE LEFT A LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY IN FOR THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. EVEN WITH A WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE BUFKIT WAS KEEPING MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES HAVE A CHANCE FOR
WINTER PRECIPITATION. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF WINTER WEATHER IN THE HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS
WAS INDICATING SOME WINTRY MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY BECOMING A COLD RAIN. THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND
DEPICTS ONLY RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY
MIX EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SLIDES
EAST...WHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY REGION. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEEP THE BEST POPS
CHANCE IN THE NORTH WESTERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT SOME CHCY POPS IN THE
WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEARING WILL BE SLOWER AT BLF AND LWB DUE TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST
LOW LEVEL WIND AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALL SITES SHOULD
BECOME VFR AROUND 10Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY LIGHT PRECIP BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...RCS
