FXUS61 KBOX 101936
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
236 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL CIRCULATE BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THIS
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY. A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LOW PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. STRONG WEST WINDS
COULD HELP SOME CLOUDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SPILL OVER THE
BERKSHIRES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THOUGH.
MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TONIGHT GIVEN THE WIND FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY IN BOSTON. MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH. STAYED
CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT DID LOWER A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REASONABLY FRESH SNOW COVER. DO
EXPECT SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.
STILL THINKING ABOUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS MARGINAL. IF WE DO ISSUE THIS ADVISORY...IT WILL
BE BY 4 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME...DRY BUT BITTERLY COLD WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
YIELDING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO HIT THE FREEZING MARK WITH INLAND LOCATIONS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE 20S. AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SNOW COVER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO LIMITED ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN AXIS IN THIS RUN SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DECIDED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY...SCT LAKE EFFECT MORNING SHSN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. A DRY
DAY EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL. MOSGUIDE
NUMBERS LOOK TOO WARM. USED A 70/30 BLEND OF RAW 2M TEMPS AND
MOSGUIDE FOR HIGHS.
SUNDAY...TIMING ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH. NAM/ECMWF/UKMET ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN
GLOBAL ARE FASTER WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY QUICKLY
EJECTING FROM THE PLAINS STATES WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THREAT UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME...REFLECTIVE OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED
NAM/ECMWF/UKMET. ALSO PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY TO START THE DAY EVEN WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS.
OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH THE
LOSS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ALSO AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN
THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FOLLOWING STRONG COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION THREAT. GENERALLY
FAVORED THE MORE AMPLIFIED 00Z ECMWF...BUT ALSO DID SOME BLENDING
WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 18Z HPC GUIDANCE. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WHICH
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR EITHER
WEDNESDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SOME FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-SHSN AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG WEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR WNW WIND GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CREATES FAVORABLE WIND MOMENTUM
TRANSFER ACROSS THE WATERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFTOVER GALE SATURDAY EVENING THEN
REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WINDS DIMINISH. LEFTOVER
HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY.
MONDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SHIFTING WINDS
EXPECTED. COULD BE MARGINAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS NEAR
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...BELK/STRAUSS
MARINE...BELK/STRAUSS
