FXUS63 KOAX 262100
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES WAS A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN THE SHORT TERM AND
OTHER THAN A BIT IF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...NOT MUCH CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES.

500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY...THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
ENERGY WILL BE IN TWO MAIN STREAMS...AS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.
ONE CHUNK OF ENERGY WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH CALIFORNIA THEN INTO 
NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO...WHILE THE OTHER MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN 
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM
OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON OUR AREA THROUGH 
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT 
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS INDICATED
AT 850 MB...WHICH MAY CAUSE READINGS TO BECOME STEADY OR POSSIBLY 
RISE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT. WARMEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER
OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS. HIGHS SHOULD BE UPPER 50S EAST AND LOWER 60S 
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN RANGE FROM LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S IN 
THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GFS MOS FOR 
HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AROUND 40 OR IN THE LOWER 40S. DID NOT MENTION ANY 
PCPN AT THIS TIME...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL 
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL QUICKLY BE 
FOLLOWED BY WAA STARTING LATE SUN NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MON AS 
SHRTWV RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE WARMED TMPS SOME ON MON IN 
THE NW AND ACRS THE AREA FOR MON NIGHT AND INTO TUES. TUES CLD END 
UP WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE 
GUIDANCE WILL NOT DEVIATE TO MUCH FM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ATTM. 
UPPR LVL TROF WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL THEN START TO MOV THRU THE 
AREA ON TUES NIGHT. MOST MODELS INDC THIS FNT WL BE DRY...BUT A FEW 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WLD INDC SOME MOISTURE FM SRN STREAM SYSTEM GETTING 
FAR ENOUGH N TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH NRN STREAM 
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP OVR THE SRN CWA TUES NIGHT INTO WED. 
WL CONT WITH A DRY FORECAST ATTM...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. 
OTHERWISE CAA IS EXPECTED FOR WED INTO THURS WITH TMPS FALLING TO 
NEAR NORMAL VALUES /HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S LOWER 40S/. CLD NOT RULE 
OUT SOME FLURRIES WITH THE SC IN THE CAA AND STG CYCLONIC FLOW 
THU...BUT WITH ONLY TRACE EVENT POSSIBLE WL NOT INCLUDE IN THE 
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK 

26/18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION..DEE