FXUS63 KDLH 152336
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
536 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND BECOME LIGHT IN MANY 
LOCATIONS. WAA WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...AND VFR CEILINGS WILL 
DEVELOP OVER MOST AREAS...FIRST AROUND 9-11KFT...THEN GRADUALLY 
LOWER BETWEEN 8-11Z TO 4-6KFT. TIME-HEIGHT AND CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW 
THE MOISTURE MOVING IN...BUT A DRY AIR BELOW IN SPOTS...OR JUST A 
QUICK SHOT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. UPSTREAM RADARS OVER NORTHWEST 
NORTH DAKOTA AND UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA SHOW SOME SNOW FALLING. 
MODELS DO PICK UP ON THAT THERE...BUT DON'T HAVE MUCH COMING INTO 
THE NORTHLAND LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE ADDED SOME 
FLURRIES TO THE TAFS...BUT THAT'S IT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
WE WENT CLOSER TO THE COLDER NAM/MET MINS FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL NOT GET TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND WILL IMPACT OUR WHOLE
AREA...BY REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING...A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE. WINDS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING INLAND AND WE EXPECT
DECOUPLING WILL CAUSE WINDS TO FALL TO NEAR CALM...REMOVING THE
NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT. A LAND BREEZE COMPONENT
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE LIMITED TO SOME FLURRIES
NORTH OF DULUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A RISK EXISTS THAT A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL NOT REACH US UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING LOWER
THAN WE HAVE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...WE INCLUDE CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...IT
WOULD SURPRISE US IF ANYONE OTHER THAN THE MINNESOTA NORTH SHORE
AREA GOT ACCUMULATING SNOW. WE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...SOME TROUGHING ALOFT...CYCLONIC
CURVATURE AT THE SURFACE...BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN.
THE NAM...WITH ITS HIGHER VERTICAL RESOLUTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
COLUMN...POINTS TO A RISK OF ARCTIC AIR BACK-DOORING BACK INTO THE
AREA FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY...THE OTHER MODELS DO
NOT SUGGEST THIS.

EXTENDED...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN END TO THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AS 
PACIFIC AIR MAKES ITS APPEARANCE TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SEVERAL 
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW BRINGING FLURRIES 
OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. BEYOND 
SATURDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A RETURN TO COLDER 
THAN NORMAL TEMPS...WITH A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER 
WRN CANADA. MED AND LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS 
EVOLUTION...THOUGH AIRMASS WILL BE OF MODIFIED POLAR...SO TEMPS WILL 
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL ATTM.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND TODAY...THOUGH TEMPO BKN MVFR WITH
HZ OR -SN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION...INCLUDING
KHIB AND KINL THROUGH 20Z. WEST WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR KDLH/LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIE
ABRUPTLY AFTER 00Z. AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING INC MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -10  13   0  19 /  10  10  20  20 
INL -20   8  -3  15 /  10  10  30  30 
BRD -11  11   2  19 /  10  10  20  20 
HYR -14  12  -3  17 /  10  10  10  20 
ASX -12  13   0  17 /  10  10  20  20 

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

MELDE/EOM/LONKA