FXUS63 KMKX 010935
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DECENT 
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO...A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW TO 
THE EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE 
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO AND THE POTENT 
SHORTWAVES NEAR THE ID/MT/CANADIAN BORDER WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT 
ROLE IN THE SOUTHERN WI WEATHER FORECAST FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THE 00Z NAM SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE STRONG 925MB TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS 
THE UPPER MIDWEST BEST WHEN COMPARED TO 925MB RAOBS DATA. WITH THE 
CONTINUED WAA...TEMPS HELD FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS SOUTHERN 
WI...DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES. 

WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY BEFORE WINTER SETS IN. 925MB 
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AT LEAST +5C AT MSN TODAY. MIXING TO 
925MB WOULD GIVE A MAX TEMP AROUND 52. WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS 
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING...TEMPS 
SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER...SO KEPT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND WENT WITH 
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN CWA TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE WI/IL 
BORDER. 

WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH...ON THE BREEZY SIDE IN 
SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. 

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WI FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK LOW 
TREKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS IN SE WI SHOULD STAY FAIRLY 
MILD...AS THE NEGATIVE 925MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THAT 
FAR BY MORNING. 

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO RISE DURING THE DAY AS COLD 
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN WI. ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO 
STAY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA ALL DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
THE STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAK SUPPORTING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL SHOOT NORTHWARD AND MEET UP WITH THE 
NORTHERN JET STREAK SOMEWHERE AROUND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE 
COUPLED JET STREAK IN THAT LOCATION WILL HELP TO CREATE A STRONG SFC 
LOW CENTERED NEAR KENTUCKY AT 00Z THU. THE NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP 
SHIELD COULD CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST CWA MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 
06Z THU. THEN THE CLOSED SFC LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST 
COAST ON THURSDAY. 

WENT WITH 35 TO 40 POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR KENOSHA... 
RACINE AND MILWAUKEE FROM 00Z TO 06Z THU. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH 15 
POPS EVERYWHERE ELSE.

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FROM 
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE 
CLOSED 500MB LOW THAT WILL BE STATIONED OVER ONTARIO COULD CAUSE 
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WENT WITH 15 
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 06Z THU THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON TO 
ACCOUNT FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THAT MAY POSSIBLY MEASURE TO A 
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH SOMEHWERE IN THE CWA. 

THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN SHORTWAVES BY SAT...SO KEPT POPS LOW WITH 
NO WEATHER. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST 
QUICKLY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DROPS 
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THIS LOW...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT 
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL PUSH INTO 
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY WITH THIS 
FEATURE AND FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL STALL AS ANOTHER 
MUCH STRONGER LOW FORMS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND HEADS 
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH 
THIS STRONGER LOW SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST OF WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE RELAXED AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE 
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT...WILL HEAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
THURSDAY. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW 
WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC
AVIATION/MARINE...05/DAVIS