FXUS63 KMPX 271946
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
146 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH WHICH TO BE CONCERNED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THINGS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE INTERESTING
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK... BUT MUCH OF THAT IS STILL
UP IN THE AIR... WITH OTHERWISE ONLY MINIMAL WEATHER ISSUES IN
STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES... BRACKETED BY UPPER TROUGHS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER
THE NORTHEAST US. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS... WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... AND WILL REMAIN MILD INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE COLD ADVECTION SETS IN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT... ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. 

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DURING AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST DPVA LAGS THE WARM ADVECTION... SO
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE... AND MODEL OMEGA
FIELDS ARE ALSO FAIRLY WEAK. THE GFS AND REGIONAL GEM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SATURATION AND MANAGE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
LITTLE BIT OF PCPN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SO...
IT/S POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA... BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW FLAKES
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE AND PERIOD OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY... BUT IT APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF
PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH... WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES BY TO OUR
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY IT WILL DRAG A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE STATE... WHICH WILL WORK TO FINALLY BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN CLOSER AND PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD... TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THINGS STILL
LOOK A BIT UNCERTAIN. BUT... MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY... THE BULK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL TO OUR
EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
BOTH ARE FARTHER EAST IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THINGS IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY... WITH DIFFERENCES IN THEIR HANDLING OF SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY CONTINUING TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
HOW THEY HANDLE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS PERHAPS TRENDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
GFS... ALTHOUGH IT STILL RETAINS MORE TROUGHING BACK INTO OUR AREA
IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT A LOW CONFIDENCE
BLENDED SOLUTION APPEARS THE BEST CHOICE. WITH THAT SAID... WILL
HAVE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH SOME LOW POPS
FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

WEAK LOW OVER NRN NODAK THIS AFTERNOON HAS FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. ALOFT...EXTENSIVE CIRRUS DEBRIS
COMING OVER TOP OF RIDGE WILL KEEP STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS
OVER REGIONS NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS. MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS SAT MORNING. FRONT TO THE WEST
WILL DRIFT OVER MN TONIGHT...AND WILL BE NEAR MSP BY 12Z. PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG BNDRY WILL BECOME VERY BAGGY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
BASICALLY GO CALM. SFC DEWPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S...WHICH SHOULD BE MOIST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE REDUCED VSBYS
IN GUIDANCE. PROBABILITIES HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING IN MVFR
VSBYS...BUT TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING WORSE ATTM. WILL KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO
ALL WILL BE ABOVE 15K FT. FOR WINDS...SPEEDS WILL STAY 10 KTS OR
LESS AND TRANSITION FROM THE SSE AHEAD OF FRONT...TO ALMOST DUE
NORTH BEHIND IT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

TRH/MPG