FXUS64 KCRP 282120
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
320 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SHORT TERM...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE
TRIGGERING A LOW CU DECK ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. MOST
RADAR RETURNS ARE LIKELY VIRGA...BUT A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER THE NORTHEAST. WILL LET SHORT
TERM FORECAST HANDLE THIS FEATURE.
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOW CONSISTENT IN BRINGING WEAK TO
MODERATE LIFT INTO THE AREA TO INTERACT WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE BEGINNING
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH FROPA EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE EVENING NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE COAST. UNIMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY MARKS THIS AS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT AT THIS POINT...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH. CONTINUE TO GO WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR
MINS MONDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS BRING IN COLDER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE COLD FRONT IS STILL
PROGGED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INTO THE GULF DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL GENERATE MODERATE
RAINFALL OVER AREAS WEST OF THE FRONT. THE RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...DYNAMICS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE DETACHED UPPER LOW
ENTERS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. A DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NO LONGER PROGGING A
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER PATTERN TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD. INSTEAD...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT.
CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES...THEN WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AS WAA INCREASES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 80 58 60 47 / 10 10 70 90 60
VICTORIA 62 78 51 52 43 / 10 10 80 90 70
LAREDO 62 86 53 54 46 / 10 10 70 80 50
ALICE 62 84 55 56 46 / 10 10 70 90 60
ROCKPORT 66 77 58 62 50 / 10 10 70 90 70
COTULLA 61 79 51 52 43 / 10 10 70 80 50
KINGSVILLE 62 82 58 59 46 / 10 10 70 90 60
NAVY CORPUS 67 78 60 61 51 / 10 10 70 90 60
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JV/71...SHORT TERM
TM/95...LONG TERM
