FXUS64 KLCH 142220
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
420 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIP SHOWING RAINS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM THE
JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST...TO THE LAKE CHARLES AREA AND FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR OPELOUSAS. WITH THE ONSET OF ACTIVITY WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE BEGINNING TIME FOR OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AND ON THE FLIP SIDE HAVE EXTENDED WATCH LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY EXTENDED WATCH INTO OUR NORTHEAST PARISHES OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. INITIAL THINKING WAS THAT HEAVY RAINS WOULD COME ALONG
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THAT MAY YET BE THE CASE. THUS A DEFINITE
CONCERN FOR FLOODING RAINS.
EXTENDED WATCH IN TIME WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
BOUNDARY. ALSO MODELS SHOWING SOME HEAVIER POST-FRONTAL RAINS
INTO TUESDAY. WARM FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCING IN LATE THIS MORNING
AND THE INCREASING CONVECTION TOOK CARE OF AN EXTENDED FOG
PROBLEM...BUT COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN RAINS OVERNIGHT. JUST
WORDED FORECAST WITH PATCHY FOG ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
INLAND.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED AREA DRYING OUT FOR MID-WEEK BUT NOW
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF NEWER RUNS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING
AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR RAINS THURSDAY PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
&&
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF TUESDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR SHORE TO
6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 58 61 42 58 41 / 70 70 10 10 10
KBPT 57 60 44 58 41 / 70 60 10 10 10
KAEX 51 56 38 58 39 / 70 60 10 10 10
KLFT 60 60 42 59 41 / 70 80 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...
EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER
ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...
VERMILION.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
