FXUS65 KGJT 032239
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 PM MST THU DEC 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARM-UP ON SATURDAY.
POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH THE WESTERN EDGE EXITING EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LOWEST SO FAR FOR THE SEASON. WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL TRACK OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND PROVIDE A STOP TO THE ADVECTION
OF COLD AIR AND HELP WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT MANY LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE NOTHING TO PUSH THE COLD AIR OUT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MEAN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
TONIGHT. FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ON SATURDAY. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
TRACKING OVER NORTH EASTERN UT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
...BIG WEATHER CHANGE COMING... WITH COOLER...WETTER CONDITIONS...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT ON ARCTIC SHORT WAVE WHICH MOVES
INTO NWRN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES STARTED
TO RAMP UP POPS. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A DECENT SNOW PRODUCER
FOR THE NRN MTNS AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE THE CENTRAL MTNS...
WHILE THE SRN MTNS WILL ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BEST. ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS RIGHT BEHIND THE FIRST AS IT DUMBBELLS FURTHER
WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD...BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL WINTER WX
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUES. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING/INTENSITY SO JUSTIFIABLY HIGH POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE EVEN
THOUGH ITS OUT AROUND DAY 5. AS ITS CURRENTLY DEPICTED IT LOOKS
LIKE WINTER HILITES WILL BE NEEDED.
A SHORT LIVED BREAK IS DUE TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS EXPECTED AROUND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH FRIDAY AS SHRTWV RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM....MC
AVIATION.....TGJT
