FXUS63 KGRB 271008
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
408 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...CLOUD COVER AND THE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES US
PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD. COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM TODAY
AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AND FETCH OVER LAKE
WILL BE LOST. SO EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO ERODE TODAY AND SKIES TO
BE PARTLY SUNNY. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE ARRIVING LATER TODAY AND REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. WENT WITH LOWS TONIGHT A BIT ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS GROUND IS STILL WARM...LAKES UNFROZEN AND UNCERTAINLY
OF EXTENT OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PARTLY
SUNNY AND MILD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT BRINGS 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO +2 TO +6 C.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS WERE SHOWING A SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL QPF FROM THE 00Z
HI-RES ECMWF APPEARED TO BE THE ONLY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SO NOTHING WAS ADDED DURING THAT PERIOD. THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT WAS PRODUCING QPF ON PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE
MODELS FOR SUNDAY. THEY EITHER SHOWED IT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA QUITE
RAPIDLY OR GRAZING THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA AS IT PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHER THAN
A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH THAT...HAVE DRY WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARED REASONABLE SO
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THEM.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY ALL BECOME VFR TODAY AS
LOW CLOUDS ERODE. VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
RDM/MG