FXUS62 KMFL 111325 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
820 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE MARINE FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLD
TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS OFF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MESO-SCALE LOW (PER DOPPLER RADAR OBS) WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM
ABOUT 5 NM ESE OF TRIUMPH AND PACIFIC REEFS TO ABOUT 50 NM OFFSHORE.
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. DOPPLER RADAR HAS ALSO INDICATED SEVERAL SMALL
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THESE CLUSTERS THAT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
WATERSPOUTS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSISTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
.....................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.....................
.AVIATION...
PRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVR THE FLA STRAITS WI MAIN COLD
FNT/AIR AND LWR DEW POINTS N AND W OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. BTWN
BOUNDARIES MVFR CIG THAT SHUD BEGIN TO LIFT/DSIPT NO LATER THAN
14Z TO VFR CONDS, AT E COAST TERMINALS ...SFC WND N <10KT BCMG NE
10-12KT AFT 13Z WI VCSH AFT 15Z. AT KAPF...SFC WND NE ARND 10 KT
THRU PD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009/
..ONE DAY OF COOLER WEATHER THEN BACK TO SUMMER TYPE TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
DISCUSSION...
A PRE-FRONT TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH THE COLD
FRONT LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WAS SEPARATING THE VERY DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 20S TO 40S OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TO MILD AIR WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TODAY OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AS THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WASHES OUT OVER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE VERY DRY AIR NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. SO SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...DUE TO THE FRONT NEAR BY. THE SKIES WILL ALSO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER 80S OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY...AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S
EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO SWING FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION EARLY
SATURDAY TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR THE POPS TO REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CAT ON SATURDAY BEFORE
TAPERING DOWN TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA...BUT ON
SUNDAY THEY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AGAIN DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION. MORE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
EXTENEDED FORECAST...
ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL THEN BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY...AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN SOME DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK FOR ALL OF THE CWA. FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...PLAN
ON KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AT 15 TO 2O
KNOTS...BEFORE SLOWLY SWINGING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY
AND DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS THE NEAR-SHORE GULF WATERS WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO
15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THESE WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BE UP
TO 6 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE DECREASING TO LESS THAN 6
FEET SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO WILL KEEP THE SCEC IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR-
SHORE GULF WATERS WHERE NO HEADLINES WILL BE GOING ON.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT TODAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND. SO NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE...
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY AND IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE THE
FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY 12/13/2009.
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIAMI 86 89 - 1900
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 87 - 1922
WEST PALM BEACH 85 87 - 1941
MIAMI BEACH 84 85 - 1941
NAPLES 85 88 - 1972
IMMOKALEE 87 86 - 1972
LA BELLE 88 89 - 1993
DEVILS GARDEN 89 89 - 1961
CLEWISTON 89 89 - 1961
BELLES GLADES 89 89 - 2000
SO WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE ZONES FOR SUNDAY OVER ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 71 81 72 / 40 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 73 83 74 / 40 40 40 30
MIAMI 80 73 83 74 / 40 40 40 30
NAPLES 78 65 85 69 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR
