FXUS64 KHGX 262129
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
HAPPY THANKSGIVING.
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. RIDGE
OVER SETX HAS MADE FOR A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE THANKSGIVING. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL COME TO AN END AS
WINDS RELAX AND TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. CIRRUS
SPREADING OUT OVER TX AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
SETX AS UPPER CIRC OVER BAJA MOVES EAST AND ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE CIRCULATION CROSSES
THE AREA ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. LL FLOW
BECOMING ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND PICKING UP. AREA
MOISTENS UP SATURDAY AND WITH RELISH ON SUNDAY AS LL FLOW TIGHTENS
UP. THE UPPER LOW NEARING THE OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON-
TUESDAY. IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND REACHES THE COAST MONDAY AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN OUT OFFSHORE
BEFORE NOON. WIDESPREAD RA/SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP AND PERSIST AS
MOIST SW FLOW OVERRUNS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD RAINS OF
MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH LOOKING LIKELY AND MAY HAVE SOME THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH YET TO MENTION
IN ZFP. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE SWINGS EAST AND IN ITS WAKE BRING A BRIEF
BREAK TO THE RAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST AND GETS CLOSER TO SETX. THIS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
WILL BRING BACK HIGH POPS WITH MORE RAIN AND POSSIBLY TSRA IF
INSTABILITY PANS OUT THAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGING. ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WAS TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE UP
POPS FOR THIS EVENT AS CONFIDENCE GROWS AND ALSO TO LOWER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CAA WILL
LIKELY MEAN A FLATLINE FOR TEMPS ON TUESDAY...HAVE UNDERCUT MEX
GUIDANCE BY 3-6 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WANTED TO GO BIGGER BUT IF
THE RAINS DON'T MATERIALIZE AS CURRENT MODELS PROGGING THEN TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER. IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE ON TUESDAY COULD WELL HELP
TO FUEL HEAVIER RAINS AGAIN. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD RULE OUT ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES
THOUGH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL OCCUR.
45
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY USHERING RETURN FLOW FROM THE
GULF. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER IN THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO
REACH SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR MARINE AREA.
37
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 39 67 49 73 60 / 0 0 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 40 67 50 72 61 / 0 0 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 51 66 58 71 66 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
