FXUS65 KLKN 070249
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
649 PM PST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER NEVADA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. ANOTHER
STORM ON FRIDAY WILL BRING SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...GIVEN ONGOING SNOWFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 1
INCH ALREADY...AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND
NAM...UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS AND ALL PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE
CATEGORICAL POPS AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. INCREASED POPS A BIT IN THE SOUTH AS WELL...BUT
GENERALLY DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT PRESENT. RCM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 214 PM / 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW CENTER
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS THE TROF
AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN NV ON MONDAY. LATEST GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE
DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP THE AREA. STILL
STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH THE AREA. THINK SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN THE EASTERN ZONES
UNTIL TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
DRIER BUT CONTINUED COLD AIRMASS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER 
PATTERN TO CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF PACIFIC 
STORM SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. GIVEN THIS ACTIVE 
PATTERN...STILL ARE A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES 
ABOUT THE TIMING AND TRACKS OF THESE SYSTEMS. TO START OFF THE 
PERIOD...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH THE GFS 
ENSEMBLES AND CANADIAN. THE GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE A STORM SYSTEM 
CUTTING MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF PRECIP 
FOR CENTRAL NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE MAJORITY OF 
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE CANADIAN ADVERTISE A GOOD CHANCE OF 
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 
FAVORED THE GFS ENSEMBLES/CANADIAN FOR THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN GOOD 
AGREEMENT SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER 
STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND SO AGAIN RAISED 
POPS. 

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN 
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND AS SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR 
RETURNS.  

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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