FXUS64 KLCH 100531
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1131 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.AVIATION...IR IMAGERY AND VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUING TO SHOW
JET CIRRUS OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. COOL ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
KEEP WINDS UP TNITE...ASSISTED BY GRADIENT OFF THE COAST. GUSTY
AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY UNDER CIRRUS AS VFR RULES.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY BREEZE HOLDING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. RAISED FORECAST LOWS 2 TO 3 DEGREES AREAWIDE...WHICH
RESULTS IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEING CONFINED TO THE EAST TEXAS
LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS
GOOD BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE EXERCISE
CAUTION OVER THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1020MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS
KS/OK...BEHIND THE DEPARTING 976MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE CAA CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...MID 50S ACROSS
SE TX...TO NEAR 60 ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA. KEEP IN MIND...TEMPS
WERE IN THE LOWER 70S LATE LAST EVENING NEAR MIDNIGHT BEFORE FROPA.
EXPECTING ANOTHER FREEZE FOR AREAS I-10 NORTHWARD...WITH TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING NEAR 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE THE WIND CHILL
TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S COME SUNRISE THU. TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE
TO NEAR 50/LOWER 50S BY THU AFTERNOON AS WE ARE EXPECTING
INCREASING CLOUDINESS (LINGERING OFFSHORE NOW) TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY.
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE COMING FROM THE WESTERN GULF AS A
SFC LOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS DUE TO ANOTHER MID/UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WITHIN OUR WSW FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION TO BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/ISO TSRA FRI INTO SAT...THE EASTERLY
ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS OFFSHORE FRI COULD LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST). THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
SAT...WHICH IS WHY I HAD TO KEEP THE CHANCES OF PRECIP WELL INTO
SAT INTO EARLY SUN.
ONLY EXPECTING BRIEF CLEARING (IF ANY) FOR SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION ON MON AND TUE. DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE A GULF LOW WILL BE INVOLVED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DML
MARINE...
COLD CONTINENTAL AIR SLIDING OVER RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS
WILL KEEP A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL KEEP MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS INTO FRIDAY...BUT MORE FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...WHICH
COULD INDUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. HAVE OUTLOOKED THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY
SATURDAY. ANYRATE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE
INLAND LAKES AND BAYS.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 35 52 39 52 48 / 0 0 20 50 70
KBPT 35 53 41 52 49 / 0 0 20 50 60
KAEX 31 51 34 48 42 / 0 0 10 50 70
KLFT 36 53 38 52 47 / 0 0 20 50 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
