FXUS63 KFGF 072126
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
326 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS MAINLY TEMPS. THE BIG STORM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE MIDWEST WILL LARGELY BYPASS THE AREA TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. CLOUD COVER HARD TO PICK OUT DUE TO COLD GROUND AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA. BUT FROM OBS...THE LOWER STRATOCU
WHICH HAS PLAGUED MOST OF THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW
ERODED AS A PIECE OF ARCTIC/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST ND THIS AFTN. SFC PRESSURE HAVE RISEN STEADILY IN DVL-
GFK THIS AFTN. THIS HIGH BUBBLE WILL BE OVER THE NRN VALLEY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS A GREAT CONCERN. LAST NIGHT IN
CLEAR AREA OVER DVL BASIN AND SW MANITOBA LOW TEMPS OF -15 WERE
COMMON AND EXPECT THIS AGAIN TONIGHT...AND COULD BE LOCALLY -20F.
BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS REALLY COLD
AIR WILL BE TONIGHT. WILL HIGH CLOUDS MAKE AN IMPACT. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS AREA
MOVES NORTHWARD AND MODELS INDICATE CLEARER AREA NOW OVER NRN SD
MOVES INTO THE AREA. EVE SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS CLOSELY
ESP GFK AREA WHERE TEMPS TO -15F COULD EASILY HAPPEN AS SNOW COVER
NOW AROUND 5 INCHES.

FOR FAR SE ND AND WCNTRL MN...LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG ON A BIT AS
CENTER OF COLD AND DRIER AIRMASS REMAINS IN NE ND. THIS WILL
IMPACT TEMPS GREATLY AS WELL. DID ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING JUST DUE
TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BUT KEPT MORE CLOUDS
THERE.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY (THICKER IN THE SOUTH)
AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM MISSOURI TO WISCONSIN. GOOD AGREEMENT
IN MODELS IN HAVING NW EDGE OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SKIRT OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA. 20 POP LINE WAS GENEROUS AS SUSPECT DRY
COLD AIR WILL WIN OUT AND PCPN WILL NOT MAKE IT AS FAR AS 20 POP
FCST GOES...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINITY TO LEAVE AS IS. MIGHT BE 1-2
INCHES S WILKIN TO OTTER TAIL TO WADENA COUNTIES TUES NIGHT-WED
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL IN WCNTRL MN BUT REMAIN BLO
ADVISORY LEVELS AND DONT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLOWING
SNOW ISSUES.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AIR OOZE INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW ON WEDNESDAY.  

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC 
AIRMASS IS PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRI NITE TO SAT MORNING. 
850 TEMPS PLUNGE BELOW -20C WITH AN ARCTIC 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING OVER THE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD 
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY BUT KEPT DRY AS FOR 
EXACT TIMING AND PRECIS ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE 
MEASURABLE. EXPECT THE DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER BUT 
COULD EASILY DROP TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE 
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL TREND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS FOR THE MVFR 
CIGS TO DIMINISH EXCEPT AT BJI WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS AND -SN WILL 
LINGER INTO THE EVENING. VFR VISB AND CIGS EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF 
SITES OVERNIGHT BEFORE 5KFT CIGS ENTER THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
RIDDLE/JK